As American Family News has reported, Texas arguably suffered the worst shellacking in the 2026 Republican midterm debacle. Voters elected far-left Democrat James Talarico to the U.S. Senate and voted Republican state officeholders, including three-term Gov. Greg Abbott, out of office.
Tom Pauken, who served in the Reagan administration and later chaired the Republican Party of Texas, says the state is no longer solidly Republican. But he believes it can recover.
"I was state chairman back in 1994, when we put together a grassroots effort and Texas became Republican, and it's been Republican since," he notes. "The trouble is that the consultants and the lobbyists have kind of gotten control of the party, and there's too much pay to play on our side and too little action."
Texas was historically a Democratic stronghold, but it gradually shifted toward Republican dominance beginning in the 1960s, becoming a reliably Republican state by the turn of the century.
In recent decades, however, population growth and demographic changes have made some parts of the state more politically competitive, particularly in major metropolitan areas and their suburbs.
Although California has been one of the largest sources of newcomers to Texas, research published in 2025 found that California transplants were slightly more likely to be Republicans than Democrats. Other research has found that newcomers were more likely than native Texans to support Republican candidates in recent elections.
Meanwhile, other studies have linked Democratic gains in some suburban counties to broader demographic changes, generational shifts and urbanization.
Illegal immigration has also played a role in Texas politics. While stricter enforcement has increased support for Republican candidates, including among some Hispanic voters in border communities, the issue has also generated opposition.
Despite the overall effect on statewide voting, Texas has continued to vote Republican in presidential elections, with Donald Trump carrying the state by 13.7 percentage points in 2024.
Pauken places much of the blame for what some call Tuesday's "Democratic tsunami" on Gov. Abbott.
"Our governor has done a woeful job. There's a lot of talk but no action, sort of business as usual," Pauken relays. "He's put in a lot of incentives in place for these data centers, which were very unpopular, to come into Texas, and then suddenly turns against them in the middle of the campaign. It's too late by then."
Nevertheless, Pauken sees the election results as an opportunity for conservatives to rebuild the party.
"The grassroots have withered away, and we've lost the capitol over the decades, [but] I don't see Texas becoming permanently Democratic as long as we win the presidency in 2028. We have to win the presidency."
Remember school choice
Education advocates such as Corey DeAngelis of The Heritage Foundation's Center for Education Policy are pushing back against Democratic Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa's pledge to fire Education Commissioner Mike Morath and dismantle the state's newly established school choice program.
"Gina Hinojosa is no friend of school choice," DeAngelis tells AFN. "She included getting rid of the new school choice program that's currently serving over 100,000 kids with over 100,000 additional children on a waitlist trying to get a better educational opportunity. She put that in her platform, to get rid of that program."
Thanks to a Republican-controlled state Senate, DeAngelis says Hinojosa cannot single-handedly eliminate the Texas Education Freedom Accounts. He warns, though, that the program's budget structure leaves it vulnerable.
"The problem in Texas is that the program is not formula-funded like in, say, Arizona's program," where anyone who wants a scholarship to go to a private school is funded through the state funding formula, DeAngelis explains.
"In Texas, the program is funded by a budget appropriation."
The Texas Legislature allocated only $1 billion for the program's first year, a funding limit that helps explain why so many children remain on a waiting list.
"While school choice isn't going to be totally destroyed … it doesn't look like we're going to be able to expand the program like we wanted to," DeAngelis summarizes.
Citing strong bipartisan support for school choice reflected in state university polls, DeAngelis argues that opposing the program is a risky political move for Texas Democrats. He also urges the incoming governor to look at other states where Democratic leaders have opted into federal program credits.
For now, more than 100,000 Texas families on the state's waiting list face an uncertain legislative session ahead.
