Virginia voters have narrowly approved a redistricting plan, with 51% voting in favor and 49% opposed, adopting a measure that state Democrats claim could expand their competitiveness in up to 10 of the state's 11 congressional districts.
As the GOP is weighing options to mitigate the damage, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) wants to use a special legislative session to redraw his state's congressional districts.
Washington Times columnist Robert Knight, who lives in Virginia, points out that redistricting has been done in several states, so the game for the U.S. House "isn't quite over yet."
"In Florida, there could well be a redistricting that could support five more GOP seats," he notes. "That would counter what was done in Virginia."
The federal courts could also be used to successfully challenge Virginia's referendum.
Multiple lawsuits challenged the legality of putting the redistricting amendment before voters, and though a state trial judge initially blocked the referendum, preventing it from moving forward, the Supreme Court of Virginia stepped in and allowed the election to proceed.
After the vote, a state judge blocked certification of the results, continuing the legal fight.
Republicans argue that significant legal questions persist regarding both the wording of the state's redistricting referendum and the process used to place it before voters, and they have pledged to continue challenging Virginia's new map in court.
The state Supreme Court is considering whether the plan is illegal in a case that could make the referendum results meaningless.
"Now that it's gone to voters, it may look extremely political if the state Supreme Court gets involved," says conservative analyst Jenna Ellis. "It would have to likely be some kind of flaw in presentation to the voters or other kind of challenge that could not have been done ahead of time."
A challenge in federal court is possible.
"It would have to be a challenge that goes to a U.S. constitutional provision, some other mechanism that the Supreme Court could get involved in, and I'm sure that, and am hopeful that, lawyers for the RNC are looking at that and potential possible challenges," Ellis says.
"We'll see how it plays out," she continues. "The problem is that we are getting very, very close to November, so it would have to likely be something like an injunction for redistricting to not take effect before the midterms."
Bob Good (R), a former representative of Virginia, says the redistricting vote was "probably a reflection of the three-to-one spending advantage by the wrong side."
Good said Democrats were "lying, misleading and deceiving" with their campaign messaging and "have been doing this for decades," and "Republicans are trying to catch up."
He thinks Republicans should move forward with redistricting in states where there are opportunities, noting there are no GOP Congress members in all of New England.
"Republicans have to give voters a reason to vote for them," he adds. "Ronald Reagan talked about painting in bold colors, not pastels. We need more Ron DeSantis-like leaders in Virginia, in the Republican Party, and across the country — courageous, bold Republicans."
He remembers that Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Iowa were swing states not too long ago, but they have become red in recent years.
Florida, which Good calls the "greatest example of all," became more Republican not because one group suddenly flipped, but because the GOP formed strong statewide party organization and made gains in suburbs and parts of Hispanic communities while the Democrats were limited to urban centers.
But if the Virginia referendum ultimately helps put Democrats in control of the U.S. House, Knight foresees serious consequences, including new impeachment articles against President Donald Trump, tying up his agenda and "pretty much trying to undo all the good he's done since he retook the White House."
"This is nothing less than a disaster for conservatives," Knight warns. "The only good thing that could come out of it is that it could be a wake-up call for the rest of the country: you'd better get serious. The Democrats are coming."
