The website 538.com has compiled election models for both the Senate and the House in 2022. The FiveThirtyEight Deluxe Model predicts the outcome of elections "based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns" and the opinions of political experts.
On Thursday afternoon, that model showed Republicans have a 70 in 100 chance of flipping the House; but Democrats with a 70 in 100 chance of holding on to control of the Senate. This prediction contradicts recent polls in toss-up Senate races (which could determine the majority party) that show Republican candidates in Georgia and Nevada, for example, leading their Democratic incumbents.
Rob Chambers, vice president of AFA Action, says one has to look at history.
"When you look at past voting patterns, the party that has the White House in the Midterm Elections is normally at a disadvantage," he begins. "So historically speaking, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives are both at a disadvantage [for Democrats]. The polls are actually showing something far different from what [the 538.com model] is indicating."
Chambers suggests the 538 model is heavily weighted toward the opinions of political experts and fundraising.
"My opinion is the 538 model is very skewed," he offers. "And I don't believe the Democrats have anywhere near that level of chance of retaining the Senate in the Midterm Election."
As for the House, Chambers also his doubts about what 538.com predicts. "I certainly believe it is wrong as it assesses Republicans' control of the House. I believe it is very much higher than a 69% chance," he offers. "I believe it's probably more like a 95% chance."
Timothy Head, executive director for the Faith & Freedom Coalition, sees the battle for the Senate in similar terms, telling The Christian Post it's a "jump ball" at this point, being determined by the races in Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. And he sees the GOP picking up between 30 and 40 seats in the House, easily giving that party the majority.
Editor's Note: AFA Action is an affiliate of the American Family Association, the parent organization of the American Family News Network, which operates AFN.net.