More than half of Americans say that the “rule of law is weaker now than it was 10 years ago,” according to a survey of more than 23,000 U.S. adults released this month. Only one American (14%) said the rule of law was stronger for every four Americans (56%) who said the rule of law was weaker.
The survey provides a helpful “temperature check” on our unstable times, but ultimately it shows nothing other than what Scripture predicts will transpire.
Confidence in the rule of law varies by partisanship. One-fifth (21%) of Republicans said the rule of law had gotten stronger, and only 43% said it had grown weaker (still, that’s two-to-one against). By contrast, only 11% of Democrats said the rule of law had gotten stronger, while 65% said it had grown weaker (six-to-one against).
The obvious narrative created by these survey findings (both the decade-long timeframe of the question and the partisan skew) is that the breakdown is Donald Trump’s fault. (Remember the word “narrative,” as it will become significant shortly.)
That narrative is further confirmed by a later survey question asking respondents, “What is the one thing that could be done that you think would most improve U.S. democracy in the future?” The report notes that “Democrats (25%) are more likely than Republicans (9%) and independents (14%) to talk about changing U.S. leadership,” specifically “removing Trump from the presidency.” Unsurprisingly, “Republicans (16%) are modestly more likely than Democrats (10%) and independents (12%) to mention electoral reforms,” specifically “requiring voter identification for voting (6%) and ensuring fair elections (4%).”
Surveys can nudge respondents toward just about any desired conclusion, and this one is no exception. Although administered by Gallup, it is part of the Charles F. Kettering Foundation’s “Democracy for All Project.” With a name like that, one need not know anything about the foundation to guess the project’s partisan lean.
But the foundation’s stated purpose reveals even more. According to its website, the activists in the Charles F. Kettering Foundation “create and support narratives that inspire people to embrace their power and role in democracy and that disrupt false narratives that are designed to divide community and harm democracy.” (Remember that word “narrative” from earlier?)
In other words, this foundation has no shame in outright declaring that its purpose is to create a politically favorable narrative, and it has crafted a survey to do just that.
In its own words, “People care about democracy, and that is something worth building on,” said Derek Barker, senior program officer for research initiatives at Kettering. “Right now, it’s a matter of getting through this period where people are really concerned about how it’s performing and how leaders are acting in office.”
What does “getting through this period” mean? “This period” unsubtly refers to the Trump Era, and “getting through” it implies that the era will soon come to an end. That’s the narrative this survey tries to create: vote out Trump and his cronies, and everything wrong with American government will fix itself.
But is it really so simple? The survey’s own results provide reason to believe that anxiety over “democracy” or “the rule of law” may be, at least in part, a proxy for some other form of dissatisfaction, such as economics or politics.
In an answer about the balance of power, the survey revealed that “those living comfortably on their present income are more likely than those finding it very difficult to get by to rate the division of power among the branches of government as working well (26% vs. 10%).” So, are answers to “division of power” question really a way of expressing affordability concerns?
Likewise, the survey seemed to signal political dissatisfaction more than structural fears. When asked how to improve American democracy, the top answer voters gave (17%) was to vote out incumbents — the least structural change of all. The angst seemed most concentrated on the most concentrated centers of power. The survey found that “59% say the executive branch has too much power, far more than say the same of the judicial (38%) or legislative (34%) branches.” Meanwhile, “About one-third (34%) say democracy is performing well in their own city or town, nearly double the share who say the same about democracy nationally (19%).”
Again, one struggles to avoid the conclusion that this survey was tailored to suggest that Trump is the problem.
Of course, every strong lie builds itself on a kernel of truth. Here, the kernel of truth is the headline: U.S. adults perceive lawlessness to be on the rise over the past decade.
Notably, the survey can only demonstrate voters’ snapshot perception. As the third annual survey, it cannot compare like measurements of the rule of law now, with the rule of law 10 years ago. This means that it also cannot rule out the possibility that voters always view the rule of law as something on the decline.
Once again, the survey’s own results suggest one explanation for this pessimistic view of the rule of law. While 78% of respondents said “government officials must always follow the law without exception,” fully 20% said that “government officials should sometimes be allowed exceptions to the law to do what is needed for the country.” One way to interpret these responses is that 20% of Americans view laws more like guidelines than actual rules, to paraphrase a cinematic pirate.
Such an answer would stun previous generations, and it should stun this one. Those searching for an explanation to the perceived rise in lawlessness need look no further! If one out of every five people only obeys laws when they feel like it, that seriously undermines the rule of law right there.
Symptoms of this problem are myriad. “No-chase” policies in retail stores not only incentivize shoplifting, but it also gives both thieves and onlookers the impression that shoplifting is not punished. Fare-skipping on public transportation — especially while police or “security” personnel look on idly enhances this perception. On the more extreme end, Luigi Mangione gained an instant cult following for shooting a health care CEO in the back, merely for running a health care company.
Proponents of the Kettering narrative may counter that these cultural symptoms are just that — symptoms — but the foundational responsibility for the lawlessness lies with Trump. It is surely true that Trump’s most adamant defenders have plenty to be embarrassed about. But that does not mean the problem began with Trump. During the Obama administration, agencies like the IRS and FBI betrayed deep political corruption.
Meanwhile, Vice President Biden’s family was peddling his name like a magic charm in foreign courts. Democrats in Congress then impeached Trump for attempting to expose the Biden family corruption. And, when Republicans in Congress were finally getting to the truth, President Biden issued an 11th-hour blanket pardon covering any crimes his family members may have committed over the years in question.
In other words, the Kettering narrative against Trump is about as neat and tidy as a wad of toilet paper clogging the bowl. There’s substance there, but it’s such an unkempt, filthy mess that it’s hard to say what exactly is going on.
None of this should be surprising to those who know their Bibles. Nearly 3,000 years ago, King Solomon observed that corruption and oppression was nearly universal in human governments. “If you see in a province the oppression of the poor and the violation of justice and righteousness, do not be amazed at the matter, for the high official is watched by a higher, and there are yet higher ones over them” (Ecclesiastes 5:8).
In warning his disciples what would come before his return, Jesus said, “because lawlessness will be increased, the love of many will grow cold” (Matthew 24:12). What does the increase of lawlessness look like? That’s a good question, and it likely means more than merely one survey’s snapshot of voter perceptions of lawlessness. However, one final text may be instructive.
In 2 Thessalonians 2, Paul describes a coming “man of lawlessness,” who will oppose Jesus and his church. “The coming of the lawless one is by the activity of Satan with all power and false signs and wonders,” Paul wrote, “and with all wicked deception for those who are perishing, because they refused to love the truth and so be saved. Therefore God sends them a strong delusion, so that they may believe what is false, in order that all may be condemned who did not believe the truth but had pleasure in unrighteousness” (2 Thessalonians 2:9-12).
Ultimately, outward conformity to American laws is less important than people’s posture toward God and his law. The ultimate problem is that men take pleasure in unrighteousness. Therefore, apart from blessed seasons of revival or herculean efforts of social reform, lawlessness is always on the increase. The current time is no different.
Editor's Note: This article first appeared at The Washington Stand.
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