Iran has suffered severe blows, yet not enough to shake its posture at the negotiating table. Its allies Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza are degraded but functioning, with Israel still regularly launching strikes at both. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under mounting pressure to translate military achievements into clear dividends ahead of elections later this year.
U.S. President Donald Trump still appears to be seeking a nuclear deal with Iran and wider peace in the Middle East. But talks so far have produced no results and the two countries are locked in an escalating standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
Major military operations have halted, but the underlying grievances — which long predate Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack — have not been addressed. Millions of people are still displaced, and many fear the fighting could resume at any time.
Ceasefires “don’t fix anything — they just stop things from getting worse,” said Michael Ratney, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “It’s part of an answer to an immediate political problem, which is (Trump) needs to get out of war and can’t figure out how do that.”
A closed strait and an escalating standoff with Iran
For weeks, Trump has vacillated between threats to unleash major attacks on Iran's infrastructure — at one point threatening to end “a whole civilization” — and attempts to negotiate an agreement over its nuclear program and other disputes going back decades.
This week he extended a ceasefire but said he would maintain a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. On Wednesday, he vowed to attack Iranian fast boats in the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively choked off since the start of the war, sparking a worldwide energy crisis.
Iran has given no public indication it is willing to make concessions on its nuclear program, ballistic missiles or support for regional proxies. It says the strait will remain closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade and Israel halts attacks on Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah.
Neither side seems to want full-scale war and a new round of ceasefire talks was planned Saturday in Pakistan.
Iran's leaders, based on their statements on social media, seem to have concluded that they can withstand the blockade longer than Trump can bear soaring gas prices and an unpopular war, especially with U.S. midterm elections later this year.
