Trump has veered between venting that China, the world’s biggest buyer of Iranian oil, hasn't done more to get the Islamic Republic in line, and acknowledging that Xi's government helped de-escalate the conflict last month by nudging Tehran back to ceasefire talks when negotiations wobbled.
But ahead of Trump's visit, the White House has set low expectations that Trump will be able to persuade Xi to change China's posture.
Instead, the administration seems determined not to let differences on Iran overshadow efforts to make headway on other difficult matters in the complicated relationship — ranging from trade to further Chinese cooperation to block exports of fentanyl precursors.
“We don’t want this to be something that derails the broader relationship or the agreements that might come out of our meeting in Beijing,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Bloomberg TV last week.
US administration sanctioned China ahead of the trip
Beijing publicly insists that it wants to see the war end and has been working diplomatically behind the scenes to help its ally Pakistan push to broker a peace agreement. It has also sent a “subtle message of discontent to Iran” for closing the Strait of Hormuz, and to the U.S. for its blockade of Iranian shipping, said Ahmed Aboudouh, a specialist on China’s influence in the Middle East with the London-based Chatham House think tank.
“They are very cautious, risk averse, and they don’t want to be involved in anything that would drag them into something that they don’t consider their problem,” he said.
In recent days, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have stepped up their calls for China to use its influence to help reopen the strait, through which about 20% of the world's crude flowed before the war began.
The State Department announced Friday it was sanctioning four entities, including three China-based firms, for providing sensitive satellite imagery that enables Iranian military strikes against U.S. forces in the Middle East. Earlier, the Treasury Department moved to target Chinese oil refineries accused of purchasing oil from Tehran, as well as shippers of the oil. The sanctions cut off the companies from the U.S. financial system and penalize anyone who does business with them.
Beijing has called the sanctions “illegal unilateral pressure” and enacted a blocking statute — passed in 2021 and never used until now — that prohibits any Chinese entity from recognizing or complying with the sanctions.
Trump on Monday downplayed differences with China over Iran and underscored that Xi wants to see the strait reopened. “He’d like to see it get done,” Trump said of the Chinese leader.
Like Trump, Xi also has plenty of reason to not let differences over Iran impact other facets of the relationship, analysts say. China imports about half its crude oil and almost one-third of its liquefied natural gas from Middle Eastern countries affected by the closure of the strait, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.
Beijing wants to guard against further deterioration of the US-China relationship — something that would add further challenges to its economy.
“I think for Xi, a win is continued stability without surrender,” said Craig Singleton, senior director for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' China program. “He wants the summit to validate China’s superpower status, preserve the tariff predictability, and to reaffirm that Washington has to deal with Beijing on Beijing’s terms.”
Yet, since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, there have been difficult moments between Trump and Xi that threatened to set back the relative stability in their relationship.
China has long supported Iran’s ballistic missile program and backed it with dual-use industrial components that can be used for missile production, according to the U.S. government.
Last month, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on China after reports that Beijing was preparing to deliver a shipment of new air defense systems to Iran, but later backed away from the threat, claiming that he had received written assurance from Xi that he would not provide Tehran with weaponry. Days later, Trump said cryptically that the U.S. Navy had intercepted a Chinese vessel carrying a “gift” for Iran. He has not offered further explanation.
