A Washington Post article says the strongest El Niño on record, from 1877 to 1878, fueled conditions that led to a global famine which killed more than 50 million people across India, China, Brazil and elsewhere.
With advancements in weather and climate monitoring and prediction, some say the world is more prepared to deal with the consequences.
The Weather Channel says describes an El Niño as a periodic warming of water in the Pacific Ocean that could affect weather globally. A “super El Niño,” which leaves the water two degrees Celsius warmer, is rare, with only four since 1950.
According to Yahoo News, because of the El Niño, 2026 could be the hottest year on record. Hurricane activity could also increase in the central and eastern Pacific and decrease in the tropical Atlantic. Meanwhile, winter in the northern part of North America could be warmer, while the southern part could be colder. Other areas of the globe could see a drought or fewer monsoons.
The National Weather Service updated the chance of an El Niño in July by 82% and the chance it lasts throughout the winter by 96%. CNN reports that it could be the strongest “super El Niño” according to some computer models.
Something that stood out to Climatologist David Legates of the Cornwall Alliance was two images in the article showing what the sea surface temperature anomalies looked like in 1877 verses what they could look like this later year.
"Neither one of those can be real. You can't have data from 1877 that shows you the globe. We just don't have enough data points to make an interpolation. We certainly didn't have satellites,” says Legates. “And then the other one is a forecast in the future. Maybe it's a model run, but it almost looks like it's a nice cool graphic that has no bearing in reality."
However, Legates says no two El Niño events are the same.
"You look at the history of these things. You see that it's not like a cookie cutter. You start looking down through these, and their maps are completely different. Looking at where temperatures change, they all look different,” states Legates. “El Niño has sort of a characteristic signature, but it never looks the same twice."
