Fox Weather reports The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) recently issued their May long-range forecast model, which ups the chances of a strong El Niño. There is a 100% chance of a super El Niño hitting in November, the network says.
AFN reported previously on the high probability of El Niño this year.
Fox Weather Meteorologist Haley Meier explained what appears to be happening.
"What an El Niño does is it creates very much warmer water temperatures across the Eastern Pacific. It also helps to promote rising air. So, the EPAC (Eastern Pacific) is likely going to be a very active basin this year,” states Meier.
On the flip side, Meier said, the atmosphere works as a balancing scale.
“It's always trying to equal out,” states Meier. “So, if one area is going to be above average, well, one spot, we're going to have more sinking air and wind shear, and that's what's going to suppress the Atlantic activity."
Meier said activity in the Gulf of America could still be near average.
"What meteorologists look for in determining whether you have an El Niño, ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) Neutral or a La Niña is the water temperature of the Equatorial Pacific. Anything over half a degree Celsius or warmer beyond average, you're in an El Niño. Anything over 2°C plus, that's when you get into Super El Niño territory," Meier explains.
According to an ENSO forecast from the Columbian Climate School, models indicate a 70% probability of an El Niño onset from April to June of this year. According to the National Weather Service, it is an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions from April-June.
A wetter fall and winter in the southern U.S. is also possible as NOAA says El Niño causes the jet stream to shift southward and extend eastward over the southern U.S.
This would be good news for drought-stricken areas of the South.
