According to a forecast issued late last week by Colorado State University, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be slightly less active than average. The forecast projects 13 named storms, six hurricanes, including two major (Category 3+) hurricanes this year. This is the fewest number of storms they've predicted since 2019.
A strong El Nino is forecasted and is expected to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean. This happens through stronger upper-level winds and ocean temperatures not being as warm.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will release its hurricane forecast next month.
AFN reported previously on the high probability of this activity.
Bryan Norcross is a hurricane specialist for Fox Weather, explaining why hurricane activity seems to be lessened this year.
"The air rises in the Pacific (Ocean). You get warmer water that makes air rise and it has to come down. So, it goes up, and it comes down over the Atlantic and tends to suppress activity there,” Norcross says.
He informs that it also comes down on the other side of the Pacific and can suppress activity there as well.
“These are big circulations, called Walker Circulations, in the atmosphere, and that's why we pay attention to that. The Pacific is so big, and this area of warm water south of Hawaii is so big that it changes the direction of the flow in the atmosphere that affects weather all around the world,” Norcross states.
Norcross warns to not let one’s guard down due to a less than average hurricane forecast. He says that there is a really strong message from the Hurricane Center and the emergency managers at the National Tropical Weather Conference.
“We prepare for every season like it's going to be a terrible season. We don't know because, really, it only takes one. As everybody that's been hit by a hurricane over the last several years knows, the one terrible day they had changes their lives for a long time," Norcross says.
