Colorado State University researchers unveiled their forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. They currently anticipate the Atlantic Basin having a below-normal hurricane activity.
There's talk about how a strong El Nino could affect this year's season. Normally, El Ninos occur every 3-5 years and last 9-12 months with some variations in occurrence and length.
Bryan Norcross, Fox Weather hurricane specialist, says the Pacific Ocean holds the key.
"Scientific research tells us that what happens in this area of the ocean — here, kind of South of Hawaii along the equator — kind of controls the weather around the world. When there's a lot of warm water in this box right there, it's called an El Nino, and it affects the weather patterns,” Norcross states.
One of the things that it affects, he says, is hurricane season.
“It also originally came because it affects the fishing over in in this part of the ocean, and the Peruvian fishermen noticed that it peaked around Christmas time, El Nino, meaning the Christ child," Norcross explains.
An El Nino typically suppresses the development of tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin, which could be considered a good thing for coastal residents. NOAA says increased wind shear and a more stable atmosphere are the main reasons for the decrease in tropical activity.
Norcross says forecast models show waters are too warm in the Pacific.
"As we go through June and especially into the heart of the hurricane season, way up into this range, notice 2°C above normal. If it gets above 2°C, that's called a super El Nino, and that has traditionally caused a significant decrease in the amount of activity in the Atlantic," Norcross states.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its forecast in May.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.
