In January 2023, after the four-year presidency of conservative Jair Bolsonaro, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva returned to Brazil's presidency, restoring the Workers' Party to power. Since then, Lula's government has expanded social spending and pursued higher taxes on top earners while struggling to rein in government spending. Brazil's gross public debt has climbed by more than 10 percentage points of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since he took office, reaching about 83% of GDP.
Those fiscal pressures, along with growing resistance to Lula's left-leaning policies, have reportedly helped create an opening for the Bolsonaro political movement. In the recent congressional elections, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party made major gains, becoming the largest party in both chambers, while Lula now faces conservative Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro (pictured in AP photo above), Jair's eldest son, in the presidential runoff.
Following Sunday's first round of voting, no candidate won an outright majority, which means the top two will square off in the second round on Oct. 25.
Between Sen. Bolsonaro, who is an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, and Brazil's incumbent left-wing President Lula, Bolsonaro had just over 56 million votes to Lula's 53.7 million, with 99.8% of the vote reported.
Dr. Gabriel Castro, assistant professor of international studies at Cedarville University in Ohio, is confident that Bolsonaro will be victorious in the second round of voting.
"I would say that unless something unexpected happens, no scandal, he will be the next president of Brazil," Castro predicts. "All of the other relevant candidates are right-wing or center-right, and they, combined, had about 8% of the vote. So, of those 8%, we should expect to see a majority migrating to Flavio Bolsonaro in the second round, and therefore, he will most likely be the next president of Brazil."
According to The Wall Street Journal, Brazil's Right has gained ground in recent years, in part because of the growing political clout of evangelical Christians.
"Brazil has become a country that is almost 40% evangelical, or I would say Protestant in general," Castro relays. "As you see this big wave of conversions and people becoming evangelicals and Protestants, you also see an increase in the levels of political conservatives in Brazil."
The next presidential term is set to begin Jan. 5.
