In an average of seven polls, compiled by RealClearPolitics, liberal Democrat James Talarico holds nearly a 2 ½-point lead over Republican candidate Ken Paxton.
Talarico is a state representative. Paxton is the current Texas attorney general.
The liberal Democrat leads his Republican opponent in five of the six polls, and Paxton leads Talarico by one point in the sixth one.
In late August, AFN reported Talarico had a 1-point lead in the RCP average after he was leading Paxton in four polls while Paxton was ahead in three others.
Paxton clinched the GOP commination in May after he trounced incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who was labeled a “RINO” Republican by many voters. Paxton won 63%-36% in the primary.
NRSC backed Cornyn over Paxton
During a recent Fox News interview, Senate Majority Leader John Thune openly speculated Paxton could lose to Talarico, and Thune used the live news segment to publicly ask President Trump to pour money into Paxton’s race.
“I’m hoping the White House will become engaged,” Thune told Fox. "Because Texas is such an expensive state, we’re gonna need the president and his team to be engaged there and to be putting resources into that race.”
Thune was referring to Trump and his super PAC, MAGA, Inc., which has an $850 million campaign war chest.
The campaign fund that would normally help Paxton is the NRSC, the National Republic Senatorial Committee. It spent $13 million to back Cornyn – and to highlight Paxton’s string of scandals – during the primary. It has not spent money on Paxton's race.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Talarico has $68 million in his Senate campaign while Paxton has raised only $9 million for his campaign.
Gary Bauer, chairman of the Campaign for Working Families, told AFN he believes the tight race can be traced to years of blue-state residents moving for better opportunities in Texas.
Texas and Florida famously compete, year after year, for the highest number of new residents moving there from other states.
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris 56%-42% to win Texas and its 40 electoral votes. Trump’s margin of victory was 1.5 million votes.
Even if Texas is moving to a more purplish state, or a toss-up state, Bauer predicts Texans will choose scandal-plagued Paxton over the bizarre and liberal Democrat.
“At the end of the day,” Bauer stated, “I do not believe the state has changed so much that it will elect somebody like Talarico."
Talarico denounced capitalism
Talarico has been exposed for outrageous and controversial comments that mix religion and politics. He has called God “nonbinary” and used Jesus’s mother, Mary, to defend abortion and “bodily autonomy.”
Talarico has also been mocked by meat-eating Texans for bragging about his “non-meat” campaign events, in 2022, during his re-election campaign for state senate.
CNN reported this week on a 2020 speech in which Talarico talked about “dismantling” capitalism, comparing it to white supremacy and calling it “oppressive.”
Paxton has been dogged by a longtime affair with a state Senate aide, Laura Olson, which he has admitted to. That affair and his alleged cover-up became part of the misconduct allegations during an impeachment trial. His wife, Angela, filed for divorce in 2025.
