James Talarico, Democrat candidate for the Senate, now has a one-point lead over Paxton, the Republican candidate, in a compilation of polls by Real Clear Polling. Talarico has made national news by espousing far-left policies that are way out of the mainstream of average Texans.
On average, Talarico is polling at 45.9%, with Paxton at 44.9%. Looking at individual polls, most have Talarico in the lead, including Fox News which has Talarico polling at 51%, leading Paxton by 3 percentage points.
However, Polymarket odds has Paxton at a 52% chance to win and Talarico at 50%.
Tom Pauken served on former President Ronald Reagan's White House staff and later became chairman of the Republican Party of Texas from 1994-1997.
"I think it's a testimony that he's only ahead by one because, unfortunately, Paxton has a negative reputation and some of it is deserved," Pauken says.
According to The Texas Tribune, multiple scandals has followed Paxton since he entered the AG’s office 11 years ago. For example, in 2015, he was indicted by a grand jury on felony securities fraud. In 2020, whistle blowers accused Paxton of illegal actions helping a doner, which led to him being impeached and then acquitted. Claims also went around that he had an extramarital affair, and his wife has filed for divorce on “biblical grounds.”
While Paxton’s background is cause for concern, Pauken says there is another issue for Republicans.
"The potential lack of turnout and enthusiasm on the part of Republicans in general and conservatives in particular," Pauken states.
Furthermore, Pauken doesn't think President Donald Trump will help Paxton.
"I don't think Trump has the popularity which he had in the last election cycle. I don't think it would particularly help him,” Pauken says. “I think it's going to turn out to be a negative vote against the Democratic nominee. That's our main hope because he is so extreme. Texas has never sent anybody to Washington as a senator with such extreme views."
