In the March 24 special election, Democrat Brian Nathan defeated Republican candidate Josie Tomkow, a state representative, to win Senate District 14 seat. That means Nathan will fill the vacancy left by Republican Jay Collins, who is now the state’s lieutenant governor.
Even though the outcome was razor thin, decided by about 400 votes of 80,000 cast, Nathan won despite being heavily outspent by Tomkow 3-to-1.
Senate District 14 is located in Hillsborough County, home to Tampa, which was represented by Collins before he was chosen as lieutenant governor by Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Hillsborough chose Donald Trump, narrowly, over Kamala Harris there in 2024. Trump won the county 50%-47%. Back in 2022, Collins won the seat by 10 points.
A second election surprise happened elsewhere in Florida. A state House district, District 87, flipped from Republican to Democrat when Democrat Emily Gregory defeated the Republican candidate, Jon Maples, 51%-48%.
That state House election has drawn even more attention for two reasons: District 87 includes President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, and Trump carried the district by 11 points in 2024.
The surprise election outcomes were a topic on “Jennis Ellis in the Morning,” the AFR morning show, where the Florida-based show host asked if both Democrat wins are a “bellwether” for the midterm elections in November.
Reacting to the flipped seats, and to predictions it’s a preview of midterm elections, show guest Auron MacIntyre said he couldn’t disagree with that warning.
Allowing that midterm elections are historically “dicey” for the incumbent U.S. president, since the opposing party usually gains seats, MacIntyre said it didn’t help that voters saw President Trump attack Iran leading up to special election. That attack, he said, represented a “radical shift” in Trump’s foreign policy.
“And everybody watched their gasoline in Florida go up a dollar overnight,” McIntyre warned.
In a related story, Trump-friendly Fox News reported Thursday that President Trump's approval rating has dropped among GOP voters. The figure is still high, 84%, but that is a drop from 92% a year ago. His disapproval among Republicans increased to 16%, the poll found.
Among independent voters, 25% approve of Trump while 75% disapprove, the Fox poll found.
Comparing the two Florida special elections to national sentiment, Ellis asked if the Republican Party is suffering from a lack of voter enthusiasm after Trump enjoyed wild enthusiasm in the 2024 election.
If the political argument is Republican voters weren’t energized in those two Florida races, and the GOP candidates suffered from low turnout, McIntyre reasoned, that’s probably “very true."
He added it's also a warning on the national level that shouldn’t be dismissed by the White House and the Republican National Committee.
Two local races in Florida can’t provide a “deep understanding” of the midterm elections, MacIntyre observed, “but it certainly is an indicator, especially with the dramatic turn that you saw in those races.”
