The Democrats have an advantage in that James Talarico has already won the nomination and can concentrate his fundraising on the general election. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton (pictured above) must face off in a runoff election May 26th before the Republican nominee can fully unify their party.
A compilation of two polls by 270toWin shows Paxton leading Cornyn by 5 1/2 points. In general election matchups, Paxton leads Talarico by one point, and Cornyn leads the Democratic challenger by two points.
Though Republicans still have a structural advantage in Texas, Gary Bauer, chairman of the Campaign for Working Families, says the party and conservatives in Texas and nationally have "a tremendous problem."
"If conservatives would lose this Senate seat in Texas, we are going to lose the United States Senate," he warns.
The Democrats last controlled the U.S. Senate from 2021–2023, with a 50‑50 split broken by Vice President Kamala Harris. In that period, they pushed through legislation like the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and sweeping climate and energy programs. They also pursued expansive healthcare and voting rights measures that reshaped federal spending and policy priorities.
Bauer says Democrats regaining control of the Senate would be a disaster.
"That would mean no more federal judges confirmed into the remaining Trump term. It would mean they would impeach him again. It would mean massive numbers of investigations that the Trump family would have to go through again," Bauer explains.
He says the Republican Party in Texas needs to get its act together.
"Whoever wins that primary, the party is going to have to unite around," Bauer insists. "Both candidates have flaws, but the alternative is unthinkable."
Talarico is considered relatively moderate in tone, but he still aligns with core Democratic priorities.
