Normally, redistricting occurs every 10 years to redraw boundary lines after the U.S. Census is completed.
It’s a process largely left to the states. Some states prohibit mid-decade redistricting for state assemblies but have no such provisions for congressional elections.
According to a Pew Research Center analysis, between 1970 and 2025 only two states – Texas in 2003 and Georgia in 2005 – voluntarily redrew congressional maps mid-decade for partisan reasons.
In the 1800s, however mid-decade redrawing of lines was quite common with at least one state establishing new boundaries almost every year especially in the latter part of the century.
The current climate stems from a strategic fight over control of the U.S. House with President Donald Trump urging Republican-led states into action.
Late Wednesday Trump took on Indiana Senate Republican leader Rodric Bray, saying he would support primary challenges for Bray in 2026.
Bray has been a key figure resisting this mid-decade redistricting push -- saying there aren’t enough votes in the Senate to pass the map and raising concerns about mid-cycle redistricting and possible voter distrust and logistical problems with changing districts outside the normal timetable.
Trump isn’t buying it.
“Rod Bray and his friends won’t be in Politics for long, and I will do everything within my power to make sure that they will not hurt the Republican Party, and our Country, again,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
When the dust settles, Republicans may get what they want from redistricting but haven’t taken full advantage of majorities in the House and Senate while their own president occupies the White House, Blaze Media host Auron MacIntyre said on American Family Radio Thursday.
“They’re going to have hopefully enough to pull them through what otherwise might be lackluster achievements when it comes to legislative affairs,” he told show host Jenna Ellis.
“The one thing the GOP usually doesn't do is the one thing that might save them this time, which is look for systemic advantages. It's great to win the argument, but you also need to make sure that you have a mechanical advantage in the operation of the election,” MacIntyre said.
The Supreme Court earlier this month issued a stay, allowing Texas to use its new election map – an anticipated gain of five Republican House seats – for 2026 while it further reviews the case.
California is expected to negate Texas gains with its own redistricting effort – Proposition 50 which its voters passed in November – with five more Democrat seats from that state.
The Missouri situation
In addition to California and Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah have already adopted new voting maps.
Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Kansas, Illinois and Maryland are at least considering it.
In Missouri, a group called “People Not Politicians” has submitted a petition with more than 300,000 signatures, far more than the required 110,000, to force a statewide referendum on the new congressional map.
If the signatures are validated, the new map would not take effect before voters decide on it, likely in November of 2026.
Currently, the secretary of state is reviewing the signatures amid a dispute over whether some were collected too early.
Recently, federal judge Zachary Bluestone, a Trump appointee, dismissed an attempt by the state attorney general to block the referendum effort, increasing the chances that it will move ahead.
The issue in Missouri is not whether the referendum will take place but whether the new map will be implemented before a referendum, Lawfare Project attorney Gerard Filitti told Ellis.
That kind of timing is “something that hasn't been challenged before. Every time in every instance that there has been one of these referendums, the law has been put on hold until the referendum took place.”
It’s possible a new map will be in place in Missouri but not until the 2028 election cycle.
The uncertainty makes it hard on candidates.
“If you're a candidate running, whether in an old district or a new one, you will be going into court very quickly seeking injunctive relief, seeking the courts to either block or approve the referendum, so you know with certainty whether you're investing time and money into a race,” Filitti said.
He expects legal challenges to move quickly and that rulings be guided by the Supreme Court’s decision in the Texas case.
“The ultimate answer is because you're looking at congressional redistricting, it's federal, that law needs to be applied across the country uniformly, not affected by what a local variance might be in terms of petitions or rulemaking or objections to the constitution of the state.”
Challenges in other states are expected, Filitti said.
What it could mean for GOP
Historically, midterms tend to be a referendum on the sitting president, and the president’s party tends to lose seats: since World War II, the average seat change in midterms has been a loss of about 28 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate for the president’s party.
Only in three midterms since the 1930s did the president’s party manage to gain House seats: 1934, 1998, and 2002.
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 allowed states to create a majority-minority district in order to protect the rights of minority voters. African-American voters were at the forefront of thoughts then.
If redistricting leads to friendlier Republican voting blocks as expected, the party will be able to better allocate resources.
