According to a GrayHouse poll taken late last month, Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is gaining on New York Governor Kathy Hochul (above) in her re-election bid. At 48% to 43%, the Democrat's lead is down to single digits, and political pundits believe the race could get even tighter if New York City voters elect socialist Zohran Mamdani as mayor next month.
Jason McGuire, president of the New York Families Foundation, thinks the economy could prove problematic for the Democrats as things improve nationally but decline in The Empire State.
"With candidates like Zohran Mamdani, there will be an increasing number of New Yorkers who will reject the socialism of their party and will be seeking better alternatives," he explains. "I believe those are more conservative values that are closer aligned with the scriptures than socialism."
Those may include individual responsibility and freedoms, private property rights, and strong work ethic.
Mamdani (left) is a Muslim immigrant who uses his personal experience to criticize capitalism and highlight his socialist campaign promises like affordability for working-class residents, higher taxes on the wealthy, free city services like buses and childcare, and lower food prices via city-owned grocery stores.
His ideas resonate with many residents, especially younger voters who see socialism as a system that ensures their basic needs are met. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows him leading by a double-digit margin in the New York City mayoral race with 46% support among likely voters.
Even so, Gov. Hochul's popularity dropped when she endorsed Mamdani.
The GrayHouse poll shows that a win by Mamdani would make 47% of independent voters less willing to vote for a Democrat for governor.
In contrast to his lifetime criticism of Israel, Gov. Hochul has maintained strong support for the Jewish-majority state, and McGuire says Rep. Stefanik has made a name for herself on the national scene by calling out college university presidents over the issue of antisemitism.
"There is an opportunity for a candidate like Elise Stefanik to become the Republican governor of New York for the first time since Governor George Pataki," he tells American Family News. "She is a very strong fundraiser, and so she will raise dollars that few candidates have seen on the Republican side for governor here in this state."
If she beats Hochul next year, McGuire says Stefanik will come into the office having built some nationwide name recognition.
