Heading into today's election, the Liberals under Mark Carney held a five-point lead over Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives (42% to 38%), who led by 24 points in January, before President Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian goods and suggested that the country should become America's 51st state.
Brian Rushfeldt, a longtime conservative activist in Canada, says many seem to believe sticking with the Liberals is the best way to deal with Trump, and Carney is playing that up.
He is shocked that Canadians dislike Trump's desire to protect his country.
"We've got so many Canadians that are so upset with that that they can't see the dangers of electing another Liberal government," he laments. "It astounds me that we've got people that are that ignorant."
He cannot understand how so many Canadians who endured the horrors of Justin Trudeau now seem willing to let his party remain in power.
"People absolutely wanted change because of the horrendous situation – fiscally and power wise, in every area – that was brought on by Trudeau," Rushfeldt recalls. "People said, 'We can't stand another four years of Liberal government.' Then all of a sudden, this shift happens."
Still, as Dr. Charles McVety of Canada Christian College points out, "polls don't vote."
"The Conservative, Poilievre, is sort of like Trump – getting massive crowds [of] 10,000-15,000, when Carney is getting tiny crowds [of] 50 people, 100 people," he relays. "You add it all up, and it's quite possible we could see a Trump-like upset that goes against the wisdom of the pollsters who are all left-leaning."
He says voter turnout is what wins elections.
"The voter turnout was 3.5 times that of previous advance polls. 7.3 million people voted in advanced polls, so almost half of the total vote already has been cast," Dr. McVety explains.
Noting that high voter turnout "always favors the Conservatives," he is hoping for a miracle.
Rushfeldt asserts that Carney is more dangerous as prime minister than Trudeau was, but the Liberal has been given a 90% chance of winning today's election. Dr. McVety is still "holding out hope."
