Peter McIlvenna, co-founder of the British free-speech group Hearts of Oak, said on Washington Watch Wednesday that Trump’s return to the White House has “caused ructions” (noisy quarrels) in Europe with a greater impact than it would have been seen had he served his second term in 2020.
Over the weekend, the liberal ruling party finished third in Germany’s election, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni says she stands with Trump. French President Emmanuel Macron, who met with Trump on Monday, won reelection in 2022, but his party lacks dominant control of Parliament.
“We are seeing an alignment that actually, four years ago, if Trump had taken office in 2021, the landscape would have been very different," McIlvenna told show host Jody Hice. "It would have been an antagonistic Europe, [and] that would have been a barrier to cooperation and trade between Europe and the U.S. 2025 is so different. We've seen the rise of the populist right all across Europe in terms of government.”
The European Union is at a time of “existential crisis,” he said.
“That means there’s a relationship to be had, cooperation to be had. Into that drops President Trump. This is exciting to watch, and it’s exciting to see a lot of politicians reaching out now where I think four years ago they wouldn’t.”
Starmer's landslide election victory in May 2024 ended 14 years of governance by the Conservative Party. His approval rating – which stood at plus-11 two months later – now stands at minus-30. The backlash has come amid an historic tax increase and a climate initiative that will likely increase power bills rather than lower them. These are two of a handful of broken campaign promises, according to PoliticalPulse.net.
“We don’t really have a populist rise in the U.K.,” McIlvenna explained.
Suddenly, a European emphasis on peace
Trump has discussed a number of matters with the heads of state of two longtime U.S. allies, primarily how to wind down the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Recent U.S. conversations with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia on how to end the war in Ukraine stirred up things in Europe, according to McIlvenna.
“Europe panicked, they pulled together a conference of their own, and suddenly started making noises about maybe peace might be better, instead of having the butchering that we are now having on that front line.”
The United Kingdom, which includes Britian and Northern Ireland, will be “pulled into line,” he predicts. But there’s a different, underlying tug-of-war between Macron and Starmer, McIlvenna said.
“They’re vying to be the strong men of Europe – Macron being very weak, Keir Starmer being much stronger with a huge majority, Germany being very weak with chaos there and soon really after the election.”
Time and place could make Starmer the winner in that power shuffle, McIlvenna says.
“Sadly, he doesn’t stand for much. He's never been a fan of President Trump, but he seems to be eating humble pie and seems to be speaking Trump's praises, which is positive.”
Starmer and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy are among a number of European leaders who have changed their tones about Trump. Lammy in particular has what McIlvenna called “full Trump Derangement Syndrome, but they’re rowing back on that.”
Trade has been another key topic. Trump has floated the possibility of tariffs against the European Union in response to what he sees as an imbalance in the relationship.
The EU has been “horrendous” in trade relationships with Asia and Africa, and Trump sees the “unfairness” in how the U.S. is treated by the EU, McIlvenna said.
The United Kingdom left the EU in 2020 and there “seems to be a synergy between the U.S. and the UK,” McIlvenna said.
Defense another key topic
Defense beyond the war in Ukraine has been another topic. Starmer of late has taken the un-liberal like approach of spending cuts in foreign aid with the savings designated for defense.
“So, the UK has talked about increasing aid spending to 0.7%. They're now saying that could drop back to 0.5% or 0.3%, and the savings could be put into defense. We just about hit the 2%, but Keir Starmer's talking about 2.5% of GDP for defense spending in three years, and in six years moving that up to 6%,” McIlvenna said.
Great Britian currently spends $70 billion on defense, the most of any European country.
McIlvenna contends Starmer’s increased emphasis on defense is a result of Trump’s impact in Europe. “It’s shocking that we have a far-left government who wants to increase defense spending and cut aid," he stated. "There’s no other reason that could happen than because of President Trump.”
