Todd Bensman, a senior fellow for national security at the Center for Immigration Studies, says the number of illegal migrants in the country jumped an estimated 10-15 million in the last four years under President Joe Biden.
President-elect Donald Trump has promised to deport as many of those as possible. It was a campaign platform that fueled his overwhelming victory against Vice President Kamala Harris on Nov. 5.
His deportation plan will involve the U.S. military but will also rely on cooperation with local law enforcement. That could be where things slow down as reaction from Democrats has been mixed.
For example, New York City Mayor Eric Adams (right) – after meeting with Tom Homan, Trump’s incoming "border czar" – says the two share the same goal. Adams’ city has felt the brunt of rising immigrant numbers and their impact on city services. “I’m not going to be warring with this administration. I’m going to be working with this administration,” the Democratic mayor said in a news conference last week.
Krikorian
"The meeting the incoming 'border czar' had with the mayor of New York is a good sign because one of the obstacles to actually getting illegal aliens out of the country and preventing new ones from coming in is that the places that illegal immigrants are likely to go are sanctuary cities and sanctuary states very often. So, the fact that New York – the nation's biggest city – is actually willing to talk to Tom Homan about cooperating with him to get criminals out of the city and out of the country is really a good sign." Mark Krikorian, executive director |
Bensman said on Washington Watch Friday that Adams’ comments were a 180-degree turn from his actions during the Biden administration. “He kind of shifts with the wind, and he senses that the wind has shifted,” Bensman told show host Jody Hice.
“I've been watching him for four years now," he continued, "and he's always been, you know: Where's the money? I need federal money to help clean up this mess – not pressing on the president to shut it down at the border, to turn the spigot off at its origin, which is the border. He's never been concerned about that – and he's certainly never been concerned about deporting people that are showing up in his city, including criminals.”
While Adams seems ready to help, Rep. Delia C. Ramirez (D-Illinois) sings a very different tune.
“Tom Homan, the next time you come to #IL03 – a district made stronger and more powerful by immigrants – you better be ready to meet the resistance,” she wrote on X last week. “You may think Chicago needs to get out of the way of Trump’s plans for mass deportation, but we plan to get ALL UP IN YOUR WAY.”
Trump earned 43.66% of the New York vote in 2024, up from 37.74% in 2020. Much of that rise is attributed to Trump’s border policies, Bensman argued.
“Lots of people in [Mayor Adams'] blue city have voted for Trump on this issue. Historic numbers have shifted over to Trump on this issue. [It's likely] they're all going to get thrown out of office if they don't play ball on this, especially the criminal alien deportation plan,” Bensman said.
Trump has said he plans to deport a record number of illegal immigrants, starting with those with criminal histories – and that he will declare the border crisis a national emergency, which will bring the military into play.
How big will deportation become?
The scale and scope of Trump's plan remain unclear, as does which immigrants might be targeted beyond known lawbreakers and those otherwise deemed national security threats.
Some red state governors have pledged full support. How the plan plays out in blue states could be trickier.
Trump will likely seek to use a 1798 wartime statue known as the Alien Enemies Act to rapidly deport alleged gang members, a move that will almost certainly draw court challenges, Reuters reported.
The law has been used previously only in the War of 1812, World War One and World War II, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, a left-leaning group. The Brennan Center and other groups have called on Congress to repeal the law.
Stephen Miller, who worked with Trump on immigration during the president-elect's first term, said in 2023 that National Guard members from red states could be called on to assist deportation efforts when resistance is met in blue states. Bensman predicts resistance is likely to happen this time around.
“We've seen this playbook before. I expect that there will be significant opposition to deporting criminals. There are a lot of Democrats who are really committed to the idea of protecting criminals and making sure that they are released to stay inside their communities to continue to victimize their constituents,” Bensman said.
Ramirez apparently is one such politician. “She likes the idea of criminal aliens in her district and will do everything she can to protect them,” Bensman stated.
Anti-Trump cities and states will make a quick turn if federal funds are cut, Bensman predicts. “You’ll get some cooperation then,” he added.
Media tainted in support of Biden
Traditional media, in an effort to prop up the Biden administration, failed to report on the severity of the border crisis. That’s led to the situation Trump inherits, Bensman explained.
“The post-election autopsies that have been done show that the border crisis and the millions of foreign nationals who have poured into U.S. cities across the country was seen and noticed, and it angered people to vote for Trump, who is promising the solution to it, meaning deportations and detention, really just a return to normal immigration law,” Bensman said.
But the efforts of traditional media failed, he said.
“There are so many other platforms now – Facebook and TikTok and all these different platforms out there – that just get around those old legacy media organizations and have rendered them sort of obsolete or certainly irrelevant.”