After the 2016 election, and then again after 2020, there were lots of questions about how pollsters could be so off when it came to Donald Trump.
Was the MAGA crowd scared to raise their hands in public? Did pollsters with Trump Derangement Syndrome cook the books? Whatever the answer, things seemed to change this time around. About half of the best pollsters in the world predicted the Trump win.
None saw the landslide coming. As for the shy Trump voter, Richard Randall, a talk show host with KMOV in Colorado Springs, says Trump's brush with death brought them out.
“That is, in fact, reflecting something that is happening, part of it, perhaps, because of the assassination, that people think, 'Gosh, this guy is willing to take a bullet for the nation. I can wear my hat and try to encourage others to do so as well.'”
Why trust media polling?
There were the usual push polls leading up to the election, polls meant to boost a candidate or make one look bad. Randall says a lot of those came from the mainstream media – or at least they highlighted the ones that backed their bias.
“If you don't trust the mainstream media, ABC, MSNBC, all of them, why should you be trusting their polling?” he asked.
Something new in 2024 was called Polymarket. It's a website that's kind of a cross between sports betting and stock market investing.
People put in the research and then bet on the outcome. Polymarket nailed the election – got the electoral map exactly right. Randall says there's no room for bias when it comes to spending your money.
“I don't know of a single person who would be irresponsible and go based on an emotion or who they want to win. This isn't who you want to win. This is who you truly think is going to win, and you're putting a lot of money behind that.”
