Dixville Notch is an unincorporated community in the Dixville township of Coos County, New Hampshire.
The Notch went overwhelmingly for Joe Biden in 2020. This time, voting began at Dixville Notch just after midnight, and ballots were counted in real time. All six of them.
You can do that when you have only six voting residents. The official result reflected what many see for the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump: a divided America. Dixville Notch residents tied at three votes for each candidate.
“Normally we can get a pretty good indicator by what happens in Dixville Notch, that tiny little town in New Hampshire. They are the first in the nation to not only vote, but then they count their votes. Imagine that counting votes in one day,” Newsmax commentator Todd Starnes said on American Family Radio Tuesday.
Biden swept Dixville Notch with five votes in 2020 when there was one less legal voting resident.
The high voting turnout for the Notch will be a common theme throughout the day, Starnes told show host Jenna Ellis.
“I think there are a lot of people out there that have been motivated to get out and vote because of the abortion issue. The question is how many? How many of those young men in America, how many male voters are getting up and voting today? We know that early voting skewed female as it traditionally does,” Starnes said.
Early voting has historically been pushed by the Democrats, especially in urban strongholds, but Republicans have expressed confidence from the early voting numbers leading up to Election Day.
Jim Messina, the 2012 campaign manager for Barak Obama, told MSNBC host Jen Psaki on Sunday that the early-voting numbers are “scary” as they relate to the Harris campaign.
"Republicans didn't do what they did last time," Messina added. "Last time, Trump said don't early vote so they didn't. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers. When the early votes come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020 and that's scary."
The question that can’t be answered in advance is whether Republicans just substituted traditional Election Day votes for early ones, or whether the early turnout is comprised of new and different GOP voters.
Not so fast with early voting, Starnes says
Also, the idea of high early voting turnout does not apply to all states.
“We also know that early voting in some places around the country was not as large as it normally is. For example, in the state of Tennessee, which is a super red state, we were much, much lower in early voting than we were back in 2020,” said Starnes, a Memphis native. “It’s really anybody's guess, and I wouldn't believe a single poll out there.”
If you’re a polls person, the average of all polls at RealClearPolling.com shows Harris with 48.7% of the overall vote to Trump’s 48.6%.
But the electoral map – which requires 270 for the win – shows Trump with 287 votes to Harris’ 251.
“I wouldn't believe a single pollster who tells you they know how this is going to go. No one knows until we get those votes counted,” Starnes said.
Exactly when America will know is a moving target. Results could be as long as a week in coming or as short as a day, according to NBCNews.com.
“One thing is clear: The days of projecting a winner on election night itself are almost certainly over,” the network writes.
“In 2020, election week replaced election night: Joe Biden wasn’t declared the winner until Saturday. This year, it could go either way. It may take as long as a week for the NBC News Decision Desk to project a presidential winner, or it could happen as early as Wednesday, even by Wednesday morning.”
Lauren Bis, director of communications and engagement at PILF, told AFN that while some states really have improved their process, others haven't.
"Like Georgia they passed their election integrity law. Some states just haven't gotten better as we like, like Nevada that automatic vote by mail, like Wisconsin with the same-day voter registration."
In Virginia, the state has had to battle the Biden administration in an effort to uphold federal law by preventing noncitizen voting. Two lower-court judges sided with the administration before the Supreme Court sided with Virginia last week.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, in an interview with Tony Perkins on Washington Watch Monday, expressed great confidence for Republican success in the presidential race and more.
Much of his confidence stems from the early voting numbers.
“There is a real energy to get out (the vote), and everywhere we go around the country we’ve seen it, massive crowds, lots of enthusiasm, and new people coming to the party," he shared. "We’ve been talking about it, the demographic shift for weeks, and it’s really coming to fruition.”
House Speaker: Kamala ‘against the ropes’
The response is the result of intentional GOP emphasis on early voting. The turnout has been what Republicans hoped. Democrats are seeing it too, Johnson said.
As far as his own political party, the House Speaker said it is encouraged by early-voting numbers that could be "historic" when a final vote is announced. Democrats, he said, are nervous and even scared.
“They’re flailing in many of these campaigns," Johnson concluded. "Certainly, you see the Kamala Harris campaign with its back against the ropes. That’s why they’re so desperate in making all these crazy statements. This is a good sign for Republicans."
