The difference on Election Day will be the undecided vote, the middle-ground voter who is not extremely passionate in either direction, Steve Deace, a Blaze Media show host, said on American Family Radio on Friday.
The latest numbers at RealClearPolling.com shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, by 2.2 points.
The numbers also show a virtual tie in key battlegrounds with neither Harris nor Trump leading by more than 1.7 points in any of the top six states.
RealClearPolling says Pennsylvania is tied. Harris’ largest battleground lead is 1.1 in Nevada, Trump’s 1.7 in Arizona.
About that 'normie vote' for Trump
Deace, known as a clear-eyed political observer, is reading the tea leaves and is beginning to find hope for Republicans.
“The polling in '22 was actually pretty accurate, where that was concerned, but we didn't get that normie vote," he told show host Jenna Ellis.
"It was closer," he continued, "but we lost that 'normie' Independent vote by a few points, and those few points were the differences in almost every one of these states where Republicans underperformed."
The current polling may indicate, Deace says, that the Independent vote is starting to gravitate to Trump.
One possible reason is those "normies" are realizing, with Election Day nearing, they may be put off by Trump but they also realize the Democrat alternative, the Harris-Walz ticket, is much worse.
“It’s the only thing that I can come up with," Deace shared, "that can explain these two polling trends."
Biden-Harris an 'existential threat'
That scenario of a converted "Never Trumper" happened live, on the air, on MSNBC this week.
In a panel discussion, former Trump ambassador Gordon Sondland surprised the show (pictured at right) by stating he is supporting Trump for president despite openly criticizing him for the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
Sondland, who served as Trump's ambassador to the European Union, was telling the media a year ago he could not support Trump's bid for a second White House term.
"I've now lived four years under the Biden-Harris policies," Sondland told the MSNBC panel. "And I have to say those polices are not only an existential threat to our country's way of life but to our allies as well."
Conservative first, Republican Party second
According to Deace, the real question may be whether enough Independents overcome what Deace believes is their well-deserved disgust for the Republican party. It’s not that they disagree with conservative values. It’s that their angered by a party that seems to accomplish so little when given the car keys.
He compared the Republican Party to the family struggles of his youth.
“You're in a situation here where you have the abuse, you're being abused and taken advantage of, and eventually that debases you to the point that you are convinced you have nowhere else to go. This is a metaphor. My life situation is a metaphor for what life has been like in the Republican Party for people like us,” he said.
Deace compared his alignment with the Ron DeSantis’ primary campaign as trying to “save something that never happened. This party never existed.”
A history has to be overcome
A GOP House majority, albeit slim, was unable weeks ago to tie the SAVE Act to preserve election integrity to a bill to fund the government.
That type of inactivity is rooted in Republicans like the Bushes, Mitt Romney and John McCain, Deace said.
“McCain, his deathbed vote was the passing of Obamacare. He was the deciding vote. You see how terrible of a senator Romney has been. Just a flat-out quizzing.
“We’re in an open civil war now. They're openly trying to assassinate the guy that is our nominee. Okay, just right out right out in the open. They're putting prayers in prison, right? We've taken in over four million people illegally over the border the last two years. Four million.”
The polls say people see this and are trying to act on it – if it’s not too late, Deace says.
“This is what we've been aligned with," he said. "The tension we have now is that a lot more people are waking up to it, and that's good, but now their solution is to do the things we should have done 20 years ago.”
