The answer depends on Republican influence in the House and Senate.
Eyeing a possible President Harris in the White House, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wisconsin) says he is hopeful the GOP will add to its slim House majority and also take control of the Senate.
Republicans currently hold 220 seats in the House, Democrats 212, with three vacancies.
Republicans currently hold 50 seats in the Senate, Democrats 48. There are two Independents who caucus with Democrats.
The Democrats currently control the Senate with the tie-breaking vote from Harris, the vice president. That slim difference has been enough for Democrats to control the Senate’s agenda with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
That’s why Republican-led House legislation like H.R. 2, the Secure the Border Act of 2023, has typically died in the Senate and why the SAVE Act – the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act -- which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, would also struggle there.
Rep. Ralph Norman (R-South Carolina) says the SAVE Act will be an important part of upcoming House budget discussions. Members are looking to pass a continuing resolution that would extend a spending agreement into the spring.
“It’s interesting that we’re having this debate whether to include this in the CR to put the funding levels into March or April. The SAVE Act puts verification into our voting system. If we don’t have open and fair elections we don’t have a free republic anymore,” Norman said on Washington Watch Tuesday.
Norman told show host Jody Hice he expects pushback from Democrats.
“They want any alien to be able to vote. That’s why the invasion at the border is taking place,” Norman said, an allegation Democrats publicly deny.
While registration forms may have a box to check asking whether the hopeful registrant is a citizen, the SAVE Act makes workers follow through with “penalties for federal officials who don’t strictly go by the book to request some type of verification, driver’s licenses and other things,” Norman said.
Vulnerable Democrats in House races
There are about a half-dozen House races where Republicans have a real chance to pick up seats in districts that voted for Trump in 2020, Tiffany said on American Family Radio Wednesday.
These possible GOP gains are easily identified by the voting records of the Democrats who currently hold the seats.
“Those would be the obvious targets. All you’ve got to do is go back when we were voting in June and July, there were about a half a dozen Democrats that were voting with us consistently. Those are the ones they saw their future at hand. They were like, ‘We're going to vote with the Republicans here,’” Tiffany told show host Jenna Ellis.
The seat currently held by Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) is another real possibility, Tiffany said.
Legislative redistricting following the 2020 census in Louisiana, North Carolina and New Mexico will play a role.
A GOP super PAC has spent $16 million on advertising aimed at holding red seats and flipping blue ones in battleground states, The New York Post reported.
Republicans still can’t out-dollar the Democrats. Money is “pouring in” for Democrats, Tiffany says.
“Democrats have a clear money advantage at this point, and that's because the elitist billionaires, they are fully on board," the Congressman advised. "It used to be that Republicans had all the money, and Democrats had the grassroots. Now it's the opposite.”
Tiffany sees a “great opportunity” for Republicans to expand their modest House advantage. He’s more confident the GOP can win the Senate.
“It’s just a matter of can we pick off a couple of seats,” he said.
The political forecasting website RaceToTheWH.com sees Republicans falling short in the House but winning the Senate.
Wisconsin Republicans are hoping to keep the seat held by Rep. Derrick Van Orden in his race as an incumbent.
“People know that first re-elect can oftentimes be the toughest. He’s going to have a real challenging race this year, but it's races like that across the country, like the third congressional district in Wisconsin, that are going to decide the majority,” Tiffany said.
Republicans believe they can flip the Wisconsin Senate seat held by Tammy Baldwin, Tiffany said.
“She’s in a real dogfight with Eric Hovde, her Republican challenger,” Tiffany said. “She’s voted with President Biden and Vice President Harris 95% of the time.”
Republicans are also hopeful they can pick up Senate seats in Ohio, Montana and West Virginia, Tiffany said.
Majority allows for important work
While House legislation has stalled in the Senate this cycle, Tiffany says it’s been important for House Republicans to hold a slim majority with Democrat Joe Biden in the White House.
“We had the majority, and that allowed our committees to do the oversight work. We did important work in regard to the administration. Without that majority we wouldn't know about the Biden crime family and all the stuff that they have done.
“We would have not gotten a full picture of what Alejandro Mayorkas has been doing down on the border. All these things have come to light because we've had that ability by having the majority. So, it's really important that we retain that majority,” Tiffany said.
