Recent events like the expulsion of Rep. George Santos, the announcement that ousted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy – a California Republican – will not seek re-election, and redrawing district lines in several states, may make the party’s grip on power somewhat loose.
“You’re looking at a situation where, at least for some period of time, you could have three House seats that just last month were in GOP control that could be vacant," Brent Keilen, the Family Research Council’s vice president for strategic initiatives, told the "Washington Watch" program.
"So in a chamber where you had 222 votes, you’re down to 219 to pass something,” Keilen said. "You’re down to extremely slim margins. You’re talking about a couple of health accidents away from the majority going the other way.”
The Republican-controlled legislature in North Carolina in October approved new voting districts that are expected to favor Republicans and could possibly lead to pick-ups of three or four seats, Keilen said.
But that possible GOP advantage could be negated in New York where the state supreme court has ordered the redrawing of congressional districts.
“That’s supposed to favor Democrats by maybe as many as six seats,” Keilen said.
A special election to replace Santos is expected to happen in mid-February in a toss-up district that leans Democrat.
"There’s a chance the Republicans don’t keep that seat,” the FRC spokesman said.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom may choose to leave McCarthy’s district without representation rather than risk another Republican winning. Newsom could have that option depending on when McCarthy actually leaves the House.
“If it's after Jan. 3rd, he could decide to leave that seat open, which he probably would do because it's a deep red district,” Keilen said.
McCarthy represents California’s 20th district. It sits east of the coast between Los Angeles and San Francisco and covers parts of Kern, Fresno, Tulare and King counties.
Elsewhere, Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), who has been in office for seven terms, has announced he’ll retire by sometime in mid-March to become president at Youngstown State University.
Democrats feel attrition heat, but it’s different
House Republicans aren’t the only ones in Congress sweating the possibility of change. Of roughly 35 House seats expected to be vacated, 23 are held by Democrats. In the Senate, there are eight seats anticipated to come open, five currently held by Democrats.
“So you have about two-thirds Democrats with this huge number, but the ones that are going into effect right away are more Republicans. Most of the Democrats are opting to serve out their terms through next year,” Keilen said.
Attrition underscores the importance of every election. “Every seat matters. Every vote really matters," he said.
