Last month, after Vladimir Putin was re-elected for his fifth term to the Russian presidency, he promised to travel to meet his ally and friend Xi Jinping, president of the Peoples Republic of China. Reports are that the two leaders will meet Thursday in Beijing – to discuss … what?
No doubt, they will revisit their economic relationship. That's very much on Xi's mind, because of his domestic challenges – and it's also on Putin's agenda. After all, the Russian leader just changed his defense minister to Andrey Belousov, a former first deputy prime minister focused on economics.
President Putin is now resurrecting a war-time economy with the installation of Belousov and a defense budget approaching Cold War-era levels at 6.7% of GDP. That communicates that Putin intends to outlast the West's investment/aid to Ukraine and the two-plus year fight over that country is going to last until likely the West tires of the economic drain.
However, it is no longer out of the question that Putin will expand his ambitions starting in a couple years with new attacks on the Baltics, Moldova and even Poland. The key leaders in those countries acknowledge the growing threat … and as a result, they are investing heavily in arms. Time will tell.
Of course, all this fighting in Europe with communist China's help from the sidelines isn't lost on the mullahs in Iran, who have taken advantage of the weakness demonstrated by the Biden administration to robustly attack Israel. Yes, their war of choice launched by proxy Hamas against Israel continues and Iran is using all means – military, psychological, diplomatic, economic, terror – albeit with the misplaced sympathy it has from the Biden administration, which lifted most sanctions that filled the Islamists' coffers.
Now, it appears Iran will continue to fight even after Israel completes its fight with Hamas. Watch as Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon steps up hostilities. After all, Tehran's true goal is eliminating Israel and seizing control over the entire Mideast, an outcome that appeals to allies Russia and China.
Meanwhile, President Xi is very much aware of the geopolitical realities playing out in Europe and the Mideast. No doubt, he and Putin will discuss their broader goal of transforming the West's post-World War II global system to one more sympathetic to authoritarians. Part of that transformation now must include changes in Asia.
Thus, the Chinese leader needs to amp up his economy and then ready his nation for what many see as the brewing conflict across his region. After all, Xi's neighbors – Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and, of course, Taiwan – know the game. Because hostilities seem to be inevitable, the entire region – with the U.S. – is on an arms-buying frenzy not unlike that in Europe and the Mideast as tensions inch-up almost daily.
These are just a few of the contemporary issues Xi and Putin will discuss this week in Beijing. They realize the world is becoming their playground, thanks in part to the West's/United States' weakness – and the current window of opportunity provides them favorable tail winds for making global gains.
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