The race for control of the Senate next January is a dead heat. Conventional wisdom suggests the contests in swingy states like Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia could prove decisive. And they might.
But it's possible that the fate of the chamber known as the "world's greatest deliberative body" will come down to a state not usually considered all that swingy: Texas. Everything is always bigger in Texas, and that now includes the stakes for control of the Senate.
For over a decade, Democrats have touted the purported inevitability of Texas turning blue. "Demographics is destiny," Democrats bellowed, taunting Republicans by pointing to the state's burgeoning Hispanic population.
That argument seemed to die in 2020, when President Donald Trump made historic gains in Texas' heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley region. And if the triumphalist chest-thumping might have died in 2020, then it really died in 2024, when Trump won about one-fifth of Black men and nearly half of all Hispanics nationally.
What about now?
The polling average in the Lone Star State's Senate showdown shows a marginal lead for Democratic challenger James Talarico, the far-left state representative. Talarico is running against Ken Paxton, the controversial state attorney general who trounced incumbent John Cornyn in the spring GOP primary runoff after a Trump endorsement.
It is easy to dismiss the Talarico threat as a false alarm. I lived in Texas in 2018, when Lone Star Democrats similarly felt confident then-Congressman Beto O'Rourke would defeat the incumbent GOP senator, Ted Cruz. That didn't happen. In a similar tough midterm cycle during a Trump presidency, Cruz narrowly prevailed.
But what if this time is different? Talarico might not win. In fact, I don't think he will. But it is crucial to understand how to best prevent a leftist, "Christian"-cosplaying caricature like Talarico, who argues that the Annunciation justifies abortion, from getting a job promotion to Washington.
Many polls in Texas tell a similar story: Paxton suffers from softer support within the GOP, whereas Democrats are more unified in their support for the joker who has called capitalism "oppressive," predicted the oil and gas industry is "not gonna last," and has called for Americans to pare back "meat consumption."
Yes, that's right: The guy taking a sledgehammer to the oil and gas and cattle industries is seeking statewide office in Texas.
But Paxton needs to increase his support among Texas Republicans. My former state is a massive and complicated one. Texas is still in many ways culturally conservative, but it is also economically vibrant and home to dozens of Fortune 500 companies. Its metropolises have sprawling suburbs, full of moms who care more about pocketbooks and safety than the culture war.
And Paxton has undeniable baggage. He cheated on his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, who filed for divorce last year. In 2020, Paxton's top legal deputy, Jeff Mateer, reported him to the FBI over concerns of corruption and abuse of office. Just this summer, Paxton showed dubious judgment while vacationing in London -- over July Fourth, no less -- with a paramour. His divorce isn't final yet.
Warts and all, Paxton was still the superior choice in the GOP Senate primary over Cornyn, a flaccid empty suit whose stances on salient issues like gun rights were long far out of step with Texas conservatives. Moreover, for better or worse, ethical qualms about candidates can only register so much in the era of Trump.
The way to shore up Paxton's support within his own party isn't to relitigate the GOP primary. And it certainly isn't to outright dismiss Paxton's ethical issues, either. Rather, the path forward is a simple, time-tested one: Expose the genuinely radical nature of Talarico.
Talarico didn't stop his Christian sermonizing by invoking Jesus' conception to justify abortion -- a gruesome act he loves so much that he has called for a de facto federal abortion service. In 2021, Talarico pledged his loyalty to the transgender cause by asserting, on the Texas House floor, that God Himself is "nonbinary."
Despite running for Senate in the most prominent border state, Talarico has said that America's southern border "should be like our front porch." A former teacher, he once said his "most patriotic" students were the illegal alien ones. Talarico has referred to the American flag as a "complicated symbol."
Exposing that is Paxton's path to victory. Some financial support from the well-heeled MAGA Inc. super PAC wouldn't hurt, either.
So, pound the airwaves with relentless negative ads. That's not pretty, but this isn't Hollywood or Broadway. This is Texas.
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