"We actually have a stalemate now," summarizes Mehrdad Youssefiani, director of the Iran Freedom Project at the Middle East Forum.
The two countries are making competing claims over who controls the vital waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas was shipped prior to the start of the war on Feb. 28.
According to President Donald Trump, the United States has "total control of the Strait of Hormuz," but an Iranian paramilitary leader claims the strategic waterway is "under Iran's control and management."
Meanwhile, shipping data shows that traffic has fallen from roughly 130 vessels a day before the war to only a small fraction of that, with Iran still exerting substantial influence over which ships actually transit.
When conflicts or blockades disrupt shipping through this narrow waterway, global crude oil supplies shrink, causing international oil costs to surge and driving up retail gasoline and diesel prices for consumers everywhere.
While most conservatives think Trump was right to confront Iran, many are frustrated that the Strait is still not functioning normally. Many believe it is past time for him to produce a tangible strategic victory — especially lower energy prices and reliable shipping — rather than simply declaring victory.
Some analysts do not think President Trump anticipated Iran's ability or willingness to completely shut down the Strait of Hormuz, that he and his administration entered the conflict under the assumption that Iran would fold quickly and fail to make the vital waterway a primary, disruptive focal point of the war.
Conservative analysts, however, generally do not view Trump as surprised by Iran's focus on the strait, instead arguing that weaponizing the vital waterway was Tehran's predictable "Plan B" backup leverage after its primary nuclear ambitions were heavily disrupted.
With many wondering why America, if it does control the strait, is unable to get ships safely through it, Youssefiani does not think the issue will be resolved by November.
"The fact of the matter is there is no magic pill here," he says. "Any mitigation, any political solution should have been exercised much sooner. I'm afraid that the influence over the election process has already been sort of built in."
"The only upside is that the Democrats … really don't have their act together … by having sort of generated some wacko candidates and some of the positions they're holding," he submits. "That is the only upside that may save the ship here."
Still, "unless a miracle happens," he thinks the midterms are a "lost cause" for Republicans.
