In light of these ongoing tensions and relentless peace talks, American Family News consulted national security expert and retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Darin Gaub. He suggests that Trump may be “over advertising the use of the word.” Nonetheless, the former UH-60 Black Hawk pilot and battalion commander concedes that there is some validity to Trump’s claims.
“For all intents and purposes,” Gaub states, “their nuclear capability is gone, and the Iranian Navy basically doesn’t exist anymore.” He further notes that their stockpile of ballistic missiles and drones has been “degraded in the neighborhood of 85 to 95 percent.”
Despite this substantial degradation, he points out that their ground force remains largely untouched. Gaub characterizes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to be little more than an internal police force that’s used against the nation’s own citizens and for acts of transnational terrorism.
"When Trump says we've won, he likely means that we've significantly diminished their operational capacity,” Gaub explains. However, he admits the country still can still maintain a basic level of operations. “While a few months ago, they were launching various kinds of missiles, sometimes hundreds at a time, now they are only maintaining the perception of their ability to continue operations.” While that still poses a risk, he expects that it will ultimately come to an end.
A path forward
Trump previously announced that new negotiations to de-escalate the conflict in Iran would commence on Monday, following his decision to refrain from launching the large-scale attacks he had previously threatened against the nation.
Meanwhile, reports have emerged that China is allegedly providing air defense missile launchers to enhance Iran’s air defense capabilities.
Looking ahead, Gaub believes that isolating Iran from external resources and assistance is critical to fully defeating the Iranian regime. This includes not only its physical weapons, defense systems, and supplies but also digital currency. “Take away these things, and you take away all their power,” he contends. “For example, a dual use military and civilian bridge is a legitimate target, particularly at key crossing sites where they get physical supplies from China.”
For Gaub, the most important objectives are ensuring Iran is “unable to influence the nations around the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, and Central Asia, [and] cannot threaten them with nuclear, ballistic missile, and drone launch capabilities.” The U.S. needs to narrow its goals and proceed accordingly, as the military cannot take on the burden of a ground war in Iran.
Additionally, he emphasizes that the Iranian people need to rise up eventually and reclaim their country, as there will come a day when the U.S. decides to disengage with its limited objectives accomplished. In line with this, Mark Levin, conservative host of syndicated radio show “The Mark Levin Show,” shared a similar sentiment on X just a few days ago, posting, “The Iranian regime fears their own people rising up more than the U.S. or Israel.”
Challenge the Supreme Leader
Gaub candidly acknowledges a difficult reality that some may be reluctant to accept: “This [war against the Iranian regime] will take us past the midterms, what scale and what intensity is yet to be determined.” Even if the U.S. were to scale back most of the operations and limit its involvement to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, the U.S. would still maintain some level of involvement for the foreseeable future.
“Trump has been patient with giving diplomacy a chance, but it is clear that Iran has no intention to follow through with anything they might agree to publicly,” Gaub surmises. “I give him credit thinking there would be a chance they would engage in diplomacy, but I would say that was probably wishful thinking.”
“One thing is certain: Saying we don’t want them to have a nuke isn’t enough,” he contends. “Their nuclear capability is not about eradicating Israel, because frankly, that’s a biblical answer and it’s just not going to happen.” He warns that, if unchecked, the combination of nuclear capabilities, air defense systems, and enhanced fighter aircraft would essentially provide them with a significantly larger security shield, similar to Israel’s Iron Dome or the Golden Dome proposed by the United States.
“They want the nuclear weapons to be able to stand off against all the different enemies who would threaten their greater plan build a combined Sunni-Shia caliphate that dominates everything from Morocco all the way to the borders of China,” Gaub offers.
He agrees with Tom Trento’s previous remarks to AFN. The United West founder advises Trump to “stop negotiating with the minions of the Islamic Republic.” For Gaub, “This is something we needed to do for a while. Not only do you say, ‘I want to negotiate directly with [Supreme Leader] Khamenei,’ but you also say to him — if he’s even still alive — ‘I understand you’re scared.’ Play on his pride. Challenge his manhood.”
Ultimately, Gaub recognizes the path forward may be fraught with difficulties, but by understanding the remaining capabilities and motivations of Iran, the U.S. can better navigate toward a more stable future in the region.
