Bob Maginnis, president of Maginnis Strategies, LLC., says though the Iranians are consistently "changing the game" and proving to be incredibly difficult to work with, the conflict appears to be winding down now.
If the fragile ceasefire holds, he recently wrote in a Fox News op-ed that President Donald Trump may stand before the American people in coming days and declare victory — shipping lanes reopened, deterrence restored, the ayatollahs humbled.
"On its face, that would be a genuine achievement," he wrote. "But every consequential action carries second- and third-order effects — and those now unfolding extend well beyond what any victory headline can contain."
"I know President Trump is becoming impatient," Maginnis observes. "He's accustomed to people that are a little more predictable. Well, these folks are not predictable, and … we may have to remind them as to what they're missing out on by picking up the bombing again if they don't want to come to some sort of agreement."
As a trilateral pact with Iran formalized under American military pressure, he noticed when Xi Jinping called China's ties with Russia "precious."
"That should be an alarm bell for those of us in the West," Maginnis insists. "We've managed to drive two former adversaries, in a way, much, much closer."
He says Russia has been helping Iran on the sidelines through intelligence sharing, while China has a strategic relationship on paper with Iran.
He recognizes that China consumes most of Iran's oil and also sees reason to believe that Beijing has been providing "all sorts of assistance behind the veil to the Iranians."
According to Nader Habibi, an Iranian American economist and a professor at Brandeis College, Iran's relationship with China and Russia has evolved from historic, sporadic ties into a modern, transactional, anti-Western "axis" driven by economic necessity, energy demands and sanctions evasion.
China serves as a critical economic partner and largest oil buyer (signing a 25-year partnership in 2021), while Russia acts as a tactical military and security partner. Both are providing Iran a vital economic lifeline against Western pressure.
In a conversation with other experts in Middle Eastern politics and foreign policy in May 2024, he said there is no ideological common ground in Iran's relations with both China and Russia other than rivalry and tension with the West.
