Pakistan has emerged as an unexpected mediator in possible peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, leveraging its relatively neutral stance, geographic proximity to Iran, and improved diplomatic ties with Washington.
Though formal talks have not yet convened, Islamabad has facilitated indirect communication, relaying a U.S.15-point peace proposal to Tehran and conveying Iran’s counterproposals back to Washington.
Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan have improved since last year, with greater diplomatic engagement and broader economic ties. Pakistan is also a member Trump’s Board of Peace — which aims to ensure peace in Gaza — despite opposition from Islamists at home.
Pakistan has no diplomatic ties with Israel.
“The Pakistanis are pretty savvy. I suspect they'll be able to accomplish a lot. Hopefully, they'll be able to push this over the finish line,” Maginnis told show host Jody Hice.
Still, key objectives remain to be achieved, Joel Rosenberg, a noted Middle East author and publisher, said on American Family Radio Tuesday.
Pakistani officials have shown diplomatic skill in the region before.
“Islamabad has a lot of experience with the Iranians, being a neighbor. They’ve worked with them vis-à-vis what’s gone on in Afghanistan, as well as elsewhere in the region. The Pakistanis are pretty close to the Saudi Arabians. I think as a kind of a middle functionary here, they're going to be able to bring everybody to the table to discuss what is in the region's best interests,” Maginnis said.
For now, it’s clear that Iran retains “some control” of events, says Maginnis, noting that President Donald Trump has made it clear that he has been negotiating with a group that has managed to allow some transport tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz without harassment.
Trump’s threats against Iran’s energy infrastructure, show the seriousness of the president’s intentions, Maginnis said.
“I would imagine that those that are still in charge see that economic disaster, especially removing their water supply through a tax on desalinization, would be very tragic. Of course, the Iranians have threatened to do just the same thing on the western side of the Persian Gulf,” Maginnis said.
The results in five weeks of war are “astonishing,” Rosenberg told AFR show host Jenna Ellis.
Still, the U.S. and Israel have two very big objectives left to reach before the war can be called a success, he said.
Regime change isn’t one of those objectives.
First, the U.S. and Israel must locate and destroy or recover Iran’s enriched uranium.
“You’ll recall that Steve Witkoff, President Trump's chief negotiator with Jared Kushner, told us all publicly that the Iranians were bragging in negotiations before Operation Epic Fury began that they had 460 kilograms of highly enriched uranium enough, they bragged, to build 11 nuclear bombs. Well, we cannot let that stay inside Iran,” Rosenberg said.
Second, Iran can no longer control the Strait of Hormuz.
“We can't have 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies being held hostage, essentially by not being able to move safely through the Strait of Hormuz out of the Gulf, into the Indian Ocean and onto Europe, Asia or wherever else it needs to go,” Rosenberg said.
Mixed signals but positive outlook
Messaging from the Trump administration is mixed, Maginnis says, but there’s enough to sort through and see success in the operation. He can see a possible conclusion with the regime or some makeup of it still around.
“Perhaps we're going to progress to the point that in fact remnants of the old administration are left in place, but they've been healed significantly and are going to be at least tolerable to the rest of the Middle East.”
Whatever government emerges won’t have access to the weapons and resources of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“I would say they still have some ballistic missiles. They still have some drones. I don't think they have the capability to produce many more. I think that in a short period of time they'll be completely out of any arsenal to retaliate against whatever we would bring to their attention,” Maginnis said.
