But will air strikes alone achieve U.S. objectives?
Probably not, an Axios report over the weekend indicates. The U.S. and Israel have discussed sending special forces into Iran at a later stage of the war in order to secure the highly enriched uranium its already stashed away.
Iran is believed to possess uranium enriched to 60% purity, which is close to weapons-grade. Any such mission would likely involve special operations units, potentially working alongside nuclear experts, and would only be considered after Iran’s military capabilities are significantly degraded.
Military planners have yet to determine the uranium’s exact location, how to gain physical control or whether to transport or dilute it, the report said.
How might a depleted Iran respond to such a bold, aggressive initiative?
“We always fear that are they holding something back, holding one of their toughest blows,” Dr. David Adesnik, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said on “Washington Watch” Monday.
That fear is chemical weapons.
Ballistic missiles are some of Iran’s most dangerous weapons, but the attacks have taken a toll on their use. Launches have declined by 86-90% since the first day of the conflict.
U.S. Operation Epic Fury and Israeli Operation Roaring Lion reduced Iran’s total daily ballistic missile fire roughly 3 times faster than in June 2025. Iran can no longer conduct sustained, large-volume barrages of missile launches as was its strategy in the 12-Day War with Israel last summer.
Loss of its launchers was more gradual last summer, allowing Iran to maintain a higher daily fire rate for longer periods of time, The Jewish Institute for National Security of America reports.
Drones are still available for the regime and can inflict damage, though not as severe, Adesnik told show host Jody Hice.
“A few years ago, people would have told you that one of their — the ace up their sleeve — might have been Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group, and its ability to unleash really horrific casualties on cities in northern Israel with its own rocket arsenal,” Adesnik said.
But repeated Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, including the famed “beeper” operation in 2024 in which Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, was able to plant explosives into communications devices purchased by Hezbollah. At least nine were killed and almost 3,000 were injured, Reuters reported.
Could U.S. troops face chemical weapons?
Chemical weapons remain a concern.
“There is research from my colleagues showing evidence of Iran having chemical weapons, but we're not sure exactly at what state that might be or if they really could put them forward or if they'd even want to risk that,” Adesnik said.
Earlier this year several human rights groups called on the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) to take action against Iran for its alleged use of chemical substances against civilians in riots against the regime.
In a statement dated February 4, the groups said eyewitness testimony, medical evaluations and independent reporting indicate that Iranian security forces deployed non-standard chemical agents during protest crackdowns, Iran International reported.
Iran began its chemical weapons (CW) program in 1983, in response to Iraq’s extensive use of mustard gas and nerve agents.
U.S. intelligence, including declassified CIA and DIA reports, confirms Iran used chemical weapons on a limited scale starting in 1985, with small-scale attacks using mustard gas and an unidentified lung-irritating agent beginning in April 1987.
Iran joined the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1993 but has engaged in research and development of a modern chemical weapons program for almost 30 years, a Foundation for Defense of Democracies Report found.
There are unknowns about the availability of weapons for Iran, chemical or otherwise, at this point, Adesnik said.
“It’s not clear that they even have an ace up their sleeve,” he said.
The lack of clarity also makes it difficult to predict Iran’s strategy. However, the naming of Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as its next supreme leader does not indicate a willingness to surrender.
What’s the word on Mojtaba?
There has been no public statement from Mojtaba Khamenei.
Already, rumors have swirled about his health, including the possibility of injury during an air strike.
Moving ahead, the regime’s goal could be to “outlast” the U.S., “to find the point where we decided we’re using too much money or too many weapons. The question is will we keep going?”
Last year the U.S. broke off an engagement against an Iranian proxy, the Yemen-based Houthis, without a decisive victory, Adesnik noted.
“I think most Americans are concerned about affordability. I go to the supermarket and see the price of eggs and milk and meat. If (the regime) holds on for months, if they're willing to kill their own people if they march in the streets again, that's the kind of hardline response that could keep them in power,” he said.
