The celebration surrounding an announced ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been short-lived. After it was announced on Wednesday, Americans awakened on Thursday to find that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (pictured above) had delayed a vote on the deal by his cabinet due to a “last-minute crisis” of Hamas’ making. The terror group had reneged on parts of the agreement, Netanyahu said.
Now possible cabinet ratification of an agreement many see as tilted in Hamas’ favor won’t come before Saturday night local time, according to The Times of Israel.
It begs the question: Was the deal rushed?
The answer to that question looks like a "yes" – but the reasons appear to be different, perhaps with a political element for Joe Biden to claim some glory on his way out of office. That’s even though Donald Trump, who will begin his second term as U.S. president Monday, has been highly involved in the process through his repeated warnings to Hamas and the representation by his team led by special envoy Stephen Witkoff.
Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma) downplayed the political motivation on Washington Watch Thursday.
“The rush is actually just to get hostages out. All the families are obviously very eager for loved ones to be able to get out of captivity of a group of terrorists there. We have no idea how they're being treated, but it's probably not good,” he told show host Tony Perkins. “So, the push is, let's get this done as fast as we can. The Israeli people are very ready to have their people home.”
Dr. A.J. Nolte, an Israel expert as a professor at Regent University, agreed with Lankford.
“I think one fact that we are underestimating as Americans, the Israeli population has just been absolutely traumatized by the hostage situation – and an increasingly loud, vocal percentage of that population just wants to see the hostages come home. And I think we can sympathize with that on an emotional level,” he said.
That emotion mixes with an obviously different landscape for Hamas than when Biden’s staff first presented the framework for the ceasefire last May. The numbers vary but are extensive for Hamas.
In June, U.S. intelligence estimated that between 11,000 and 13,000 Hamas militants had been killed. Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has claimed to have killed more than 17,000 fighters and operatives in Gaza including five brigade commanders, 20 battalion commanders and more than 100 company commanders.
How long will Hamas remain weak?
The feeling among many Israeli citizens is that if their government would just get the hostages home, their military could pick up where it’s left off against Hamas at any future point.
“They are so confident because of the recent military successes that whatever happens in the short term, I think they're perhaps maybe a little overconfident that they can just go back in regardless, when Hamas inevitably reneges,” Nolte stated.
Perkins offered his opinion that the political element is strong. He cited conversations he’s had with Israelis close to Netanyahu.
“I think Biden was trying to get a deal so he could claim something. I mean, it's interesting. It's like the ring – everybody wants to touch it. They want to say they've solved the issue in the Middle East,” he said.
Exactly why Trump wants a deal so quickly is speculation. Perhaps a ceasefire would take the Middle East off his plate for a bit and allow him to start more quickly on his domestic agenda. Whatever the motivation, Trump has said “he wants the hostages released before he takes office, and that’s created unnecessary pressure to get a deal, even if it’s a bad deal,” Perkins added.
The shattered trust of Israelis
Lankford shared a story that graphically illustrated the type of emotional burden carried by many Israelis.
“The Israeli people, many of them had developed a trust relationship with some of these Palestinian families that they had been around. Then on Oct. 7 of last year [2023], some of those individuals that literally they had partnered with and helped and worked alongside in Israel and knew their families, those individuals then came in and led some of the terrorists right into their homes to be able to slaughter their families.
“So, trust is shattered in Israel when they reach out and develop peaceful relationships with their neighbors and those neighbors then came and killed their boy.”
With focus on the hostages an overlooked part of the agreement, and likely a big part of the holdup Nolte says, is the number of imprisoned terrorists that Isreal must release. Reports have the ratio at 50 terrorists released to every one hostage released.
Yahya Sinwar was in Israeli custody but was part of a prisoner exchange in 2011, a deal that included 1,027 Israeli prisoners released for one Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit. Sinwar went on to become the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack.
Not only does the exchange ratio favor Hamas, but the terror group also refuses to say which hostages it will release are actually alive.
In terms of the agreement, Israel potentially could release 50 live terrorists for one dead hostage. But, as Perkins pointed out, Hamas gets to pick when terrorists get out of prison.
Israel is “absolutely never going to agree to that," said Nolte, "and there's a very particular reason, and this goes to some internal Palestinian politics.”
Hamas’ PR motivation
Of course, Hamas wants live bodies to come and rejoin the fight for another day. But ironically, Hamas is looking for PR points just like Biden and Trump.
The release of one certain terrorist, Palestinian political leader Marwan Barghouti, would score a PR victory for Hamas. It would be able to say the Oct. 7 massacre led to the release of Barghouti, a member of the Fatah party, while Fatah’s more passive politics could not.
“Israel recognizes this would be a huge strategic failure to allow Hamas to claim credit for that," Nolte said. "And that's one of the things that Hamas is pushing for.”
