In recent weeks, Chinese social media has revealed a growing fear of former President Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025. As The Economist reports, the prospect of a Trump victory is the subject of debate among China's elite as well, as they fear it would lead to an even hotter trade war, with potentially vast economic costs.
In fact, Trump has already signaled he will engage in trade wars with foreign nations if he is elected for a second term. And during a speech in South Carolina prior to Saturday's primary, he made it clear that China will be a target of what he is calling the "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act."
Asian policy analyst Gordon Chang believes such a move "absolutely" would hurt the Chinese regime.
"We've heard reports that President Trump was considering imposing a 60% across-the-board tariff on Chinese goods," he points out. "That would end the Chinese economy because Xi Jinping's solution is to try to export his way out of problems – and the United States is his most important market.
"But a 60-percent tariff – or a higher tariff, as Trump actually said to Maria Bartiromo – would close off the US market. That by itself could end the Chinese regime."
Chang recalls similar action taken by a Republican president had successful results: "These are things which remind us of what Ronald Reagan did to deny the Soviet Union of resources – and Reagan brought down the Evil Empire. Trump could very well do the same thing."
Editor's note: Gordon Chang is author of "The Coming Collapse of China" and "China is Going to War."
