According to Gordon Chang, in an alarming article published just last week, China appears to be moving toward a war footing. Examples he cites include a medical equipment manufacturer who was ordered to convert his production line for military use; foreign academics being told to leave the country; and a meeting of government leaders and bank officials to discuss how to endure any future economic sanctions against Beijing.
Whether those are clues or coincidence, nobody knows except China’s top communist leaders, but those leaders angrily banged the war drums in recent weeks after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to the island nation that defied China's threats.
Meanwhile, military news website BreakingDefense.com reports a D.C.-based think tank is wargaming a simulated three-week battle over Taiwan in 22 different scenarios throughout the year. The news website reported on an August scenario in which participants wargamed U.S. Marines were running out of anti-ship missiles. A C-17 Globemaster that attempted to resupply them was shot down by the Chinese.
A participant in the wargaming called every scenario a “bloody mess.”
Bob Maginnis, a national security expert at the Family Research Council, is following the wargaming sessions being conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“And they announced that defending Taiwan would cost us at least one aircraft carrier, a number of cruisers, thousands of lives, half our bombers and jet fighters,” Maginnis says of the grim assessment.
According to the Breaking Defense article, a short-lived battle for Taiwan would conclude with U.S. losses not seen since WW II, including the possible loss of two aircraft carriers and the 10,000 sailors that serve on them.
According to Maginnis, an invasion is not imminent – meaning days or weeks – until a crucial November meeting of Chinese Communist Party leaders. At that meeting, he says, China’s leader Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected as “general secretary” of the Communist Party.
