RealClearPolling (RCP) has been monitoring the Senate midterm races, like Texas, Ohio and Iowa, and keeping a polling average of which candidates are leading.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton by 1.5 percentage points, and Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio is 2.9 percentage points ahead of Ohio Republican John Brown.
So far, the Republican Party is leading by a 0.4 percentage point with candidate Ashley Hinson over Democrat Josh Turek.
As the countdown to the midterms enters its final days, former Virginia Congressman Bob Good (R) joined American Family Radio (AFR)’s “Jenna Ellis in the Morning” program to break down why polling data might be missing the mark — and why voter turnout remains the ultimate deciding factor.
“Polling is obviously very difficult to do... Nobody has landlines anymore. You’re calling people’s cell phones, and most of us are conditioned not to answer the phone, to take a call from somebody that we don’t know or a number that we don’t recognize,” Good says.
Conservative voters, Good pointed out, are traditionally more skeptical of government and outside outreach, making it harder for pollsters to get an accurate sample.
Recently, AFN reported on why polling is even important. According to Mark Mitchell, founder of The Honest Polling Company, polling is what keeps politics relatively civilized. He compared elections with an absence of polling would look like “third-world dictatorships,” more anecdotal with more propaganda.
Mitchell also spoke on the accuracy of polls, saying that “it's tougher when there’s election integrity issues or when there’s major political realignments, like under Trump. But the last couple cycles have been getting more accurate.”
But beyond the numbers, Good warned that motivation and base enthusiasm are the true keys to the upcoming election.
“Turnout is the key, and getting your base to turn out. Where I’m concerned as a conservative, as a Republican voter... is the enthusiasm or the motivation of the base,” Good states.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
