But would the devil not known be more of the same?
If the time is now for regime change in Iran, what might the next set of leaders look like?
When governments fall in any country that question is answered in large part by how they fall and what opportunist – or opportunists – are in the right place at the right time.
Transition could occur through internal reform, popular uprising, military coup or through external pressure such as is witnessed right now.
“History teaches us that one thing we can never predict is when regimes like this will fall. You don’t know when that moment will be,” Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state, said on Washington Watch Monday.
There’s been no shortage in recent days of images including, apparently, Iranian citizens celebrating the Israeli attacks their country is facing because they believe it moves Iran closer and closer to the fall of the government.
“If you're a parent of a young girl in Iran and you see what’s happening, and you see that the trillions of dollars in sanctions against the regime, the billions of dollars spent (by the regime) on weapon systems delivered literally nothing for you, and indeed, even worse, continued to oppress you, you must be thinking, can I find friends and partners? Can I find other citizens in my town, in my community, wherever you may be, and find a path forward that is fundamentally different?” Pompeo told show host Tony Perkins.
The current regime has not been kind to young girls. Mahsa Amini, 22 (shown below left), was visiting Tehran from another part of Iran, the Kurdistan province, when she was detained, allegedly, for improperly wearing her hijab. The Kurdistand province is eight hours away by car. While in custody, Amini fell into a coma and eventually died. Her death sparked months of nation-wide unrest.
In late 2022 and into 2023 there were incidents of poisonings in schools, mostly affecting girls, that some speculated were an attempt to close schools, especially girls' schools.
The challenge faced by any popular uprising is that the government has the weapons.
The first wall the uprising faces usually comes in the form of the local police force, and in this case, the Basij is particularly brutal, Pompeo said.
In any given regime change, new leadership aligned with the existing military is always possible because the military has access to much of the state infrastructure.
That may be more difficult if the current Iranian regime were to fall because Israel has targeted and eliminated key generals.
Populist leadership gaining a foothold would be possible but tricky. Dissent having been oppressed for so long could leave a people’s group short of resources.
U.S. role in possible regime change
The next steps for the United States are important.
“The first step is to make sure we’re postured correctly,” said Pompeo, who served as secretary from 2018-2021. “President Trump has done really good work these last days putting the weapon systems in the theater so that we can do just that.
“The second piece of this is we should continue to support our ally Israel and make sure that we provide at least the tacit support necessary so that they can do what's needed there inside of Iran for the days and weeks ahead.”
The third critical step is to be ready to support the Iranian people, Pompeo said.
“When the moment is right, we should make it very clear that we will support the Iranian people in their effort.”
U.S. resources need to be available to guarantee that regime change is followed by a set of leaders that the Iranian people need and want, Pompeo said.
“It will be a really good outcome if we can assist in all three of those ways,” he said.
While the possibility of regime change is real, and many residents of Tehran continued to flee the city on its jam-packed freeways.
World-wide, media have covered Trump’s message to the people: Leave Tehran immediately.
Yet, while things are going poorly for Iran, Israel isn’t standing unscathed in this war.
The death toll among Israelis stands at 24.
“Israel has one of the best missile defenses in the world, and yet it’s not 100% proof,” Chris Mitchell, Middle East bureau chief for CBN News, told Perkins. “These ballistic missiles by Iran are about 1,000 pounds of explosives and far greater than anything Hezbollah or Hamas has fired into Israel during the wars there. They can do quite a lot of damage.”
President Donald Trump cut short his trip to the G7 summit in Canada and returned to Washington Monday.
He appears to be building the public case for a more direct American role in the conflict. His shift in tone comes as the U.S. has repositioned warships and military aircraft in the region to respond if the conflict between Israel and Iran further escalates.
Bombs that get through strengthen Israelis’ resolve
Early Monday morning Trump rebuked reports that he’s seeking a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
“I have not reached out to Iran for “Peace Talks” in any way, shape, or form. This is just more HIGHLY FABRICATED, FAKE NEWS! If they want to talk, they know how to reach me. They should have taken the deal that was on the table - Would have saved a lot of lives!!!” he wrote on Truth Social.
Mitchell says the bombs that have gotten through the air defense systems, the damage that has been done, have strengthened the nation.
“Israelis are still under threat, resilient, resolute, but if anything, these attacks are keeping Israelis united and unified in their attempt to make sure that Iran is finally defeated. They’ll just continue, I think, until the job is done.”
