Hamas continues to hold 101 hostages that it kidnapped on Oct. 7, 2023, a day it murdered more than 1,200 Israeli citizens.
There was shock and outrage for hours before much of world opinion turned against Israel, and soon the Israelis came under fire for their prosecution of the war and their efforts to remove Hamas from the Gaza Strip.
Now the landscape has changed.
Israel’s attacks have severely weakened Hamas, and Hezbollah has distanced itself from Hamas in agreeing to a ceasefire.
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria weakens Iran’s influence in the Middle East along with its ability to support terror groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
One of the most significant changes was signaled in the U.S. election on Nov. 5 and will arrive in full force on Jan. 20 when Donald Trump begins his second term as president.
“The optimistic case is that over the past several months, Hamas has systematically seen all of its potential international backers removed as chess pieces from the table,” Dr. A.J. Nolte, director of the Institute for Israel Studies at Regents University, said on Washington Watch Tuesday.
“It's hard to underestimate how impactful this shift is, and that will complicate things for Iran, which is one of the main backers of Hamas right now, in terms of their logistics and their ability to even support Hamas. The board has flipped in a lot of ways. If you’re an optimist, perhaps Hamas is more in survival mode than they’ve been in the past,” Nolte told show host Jody Hice.
The Trump factor
Trump has said “all hell is going to break out” if the hostages are not released by the time he takes office.
He reiterated those comments after what he described as a “very good talk” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier this week, The Independent reported.
More than 100 hostages have been freed through negotiations or Israeli military rescue operations, but only about half are believed to be still alive, The Independent reported.
Among the hostages are seven Americans, but only three are presumed alive, Roger Zakheim wrote in an op-ed for Fox News Wednesday morning.
U.S. officials have returned to the region to resume talks along with officials from Egypt and Qatar, the Independent reports.
“News that Hamas has provided Egypt with a list of hostages it would include in a deal with Israel, which for the first time includes American citizens, signals how President Trump’s imminent return to office is impacting the hostage crisis,” Zakheim wrote.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz told his country’s lawmakers the government is “closer than” ever” to closing a deal with Hamas, according to multiple reports.
Katz believes lawmakers will approve the deal by an “overwhelming majority,” according to Israeli media outlet i24 News.
All negotiations have give-and-take, and Israel is expected to give up some currently held prisoners in the deal, Nolte said.
But Israel’s most important demands will be met, and Netanyahu’s claims that Israel will fight Hamas until it is fully defeated have not changed, according to The Independent.
“There’s flexibility on the other side. They understand we’re not going to end the war,” Katz said.
What the deal looks like
Israel will gain access to the Philadelphia Corridor, which stretches from Egypt to Gaza, and Israel will continue to use the Netzarim Corridor in Gaza, Nolte said.
“So, Israel moving out of those areas from what we're being told so far does not seem to be on the table. That has been a non-negotiable for the Israelis,” Nolte said.
Eventually, what’s expected to happen is a staged release of hostages starting with those who require the most care.
“So, folks that are sick, female soldiers, perhaps children and the elderly, and then eventually culminating to full release in exchange for what looks like some sort of prisoners to be released from Israeli prisons. Then also a ceasefire, of course, from Israel and Gaza,” Nolte said.
