Some media outlets point to higher inflation, slower growth and increased borrowing costs due to the war in Iran.
Oil prices have spiked — an increase of between 30% and 50% depending on where you look — and gas prices have followed.
Oil was around $60-$70 a barrel before the start of the war in late February. It has frequently traded between $90-$100 and has reached as high as $110-$119.
It was trading as low as $83 last Friday when it looked like the Strait of Hormuz might reopen, and it was back at $89 Monday when the Strait closed over the weekend.
“By the time of the midterms, Republicans will have difficulty convincing U.S. voters that the economy has improved," writes The National Interest.
"So much for President Donald Trump’s promise of a golden economic age of rapid growth, low inflation, soaring manufacturing output and balanced trade,” it continued.
“Fifteen months into his second term, it appears the U.S. economy is growing no faster than it did under the Biden administration, despite the tailwinds from the artificial intelligence revolution,” the outlet continued.
Two grocery staples, ground beef and ground coffee, have jumped in price since President Trump took office in January 2025. Per-pound ground beef has jumped 20.7% and coffee has jumped 36.9%, according to figures from the U.S. Bureau and Statistics.
But Republicans, with respect to the midterms, really need two things, economist Jim Nelles said on American Family Radio Tuesday: Assistance with messaging and the quick end to the war at which Trump has hinted.
“Republicans just need to go back to school to learn how to communicate because if you look at what's going on in the economy right now, it's actually pretty darn good, even in the middle of a war,” Nelles told show host Jenna Ellis.
That’s in spite of the fact that the Strait of Hormuz — which handles roughly 25% of global water-transit oil trade and 20% of total world oil consumption — seems to open and close frequently.
“The price of gas is a dollar less than it was at its high point under Joe Biden. Oil is down, stock market futures are up right now,” Nelles said.
When closed, the Strait also leads to increased costs for fertilizer, jet fuel and shipping, which directly squeezes household budgets.
There are issues at the grocery stores beyond beef and coffee.
Milk, butter, vegetable oils and some poultry are down significantly, Nelles said.
Reports don’t paint complete picture
“We’ve had issues with beef, but that’s more related to some illnesses that we’ve seen with some cows and actually some hangover from the Green New Deal because people wanted fewer cows in the country. That will recover,” he said.
The bleak reports are missing the mark, he says.
“What we really need to be doing is telling people that the economy is doing great. People are spending money. We just need to end this war as quickly as possible and let the president and his people get out there and start having the conversation with the American voter.”
Oxford Economics forecasts that if the Strait opens to 50% capacity by May or June that global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will stabilize, and U.S. inflation will remain near 3% for the year rather than accelerating further.
The messaging challenge is more formidable when faced with gas prices at a national average of $4.02 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).
It’s well over $5 a gallon in higher-taxed states such as California (5.84) and Washington (5.39).
It’s $5.67 a gallon in Hawaii where the island state relies entirely on imported refined gasoline, making it susceptible to higher transportation costs.
Still, even gas is a winning message for Republicans, Nelles says.
“Gas is down from where it was under Joe Biden. Before the war started, when it was adjusted for inflation, gas was at its lowest rate in 25 years.”
Trump needs to address the topic directly to Americans by saying “once this war is over, here’s how we’re going to drive down the cost of gas at the pump even further,” Nelles said.
Trump needs to go on offense
The best thing the president can do for messaging, Nelles says, is get off his phone and back into the public eye.
“He needs to be back out on the road. He needs to be wearing that reflective vest riding around in a dump truck, a garbage truck. He needs to be serving pizzas and serving hamburgers at different locations,” repeating the ways in which Trump connected with so many voters during his successful 2024 campaign.
Then the president needs to get out of the garbage truck and back on the streets reminding people why their lives are better, Nelles advised. He needs to do this in some of the places that have often opposed him the most.
He also needs to talk about the radical social agenda of Democrats, about recent election-winners like Mayor Zohran Mamdani and New York and Rep. Analilia Mejia in New Jersey.
“He needs to go to traditional Democratic strongholds like black and brown neighborhoods on the south side of Chicago and talk to them about how crime is at its lowest rate in America in a long, long time and how that means that they don't have to spend as much time worrying about their children being shot on the way home from school,” Nelles said.
