U.S. Central Command announced that it will blockade all Iranian ports beginning Monday at 10 a.m. EDT, or 5:30 p.m. in Iran.
CENTCOM said the blockade will be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations.” It said it would still allow ships traveling between non-Iranian ports to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier in the day, the United States and Iran ended 21 hours of face-to-face talks in Islamabad without reaching a deal, leaving the fate of the fragile, two-week ceasefire still unclear.
The war that has killed thousands of people and shaken global markets has entered its seventh week.
Middle East security expert says Trump has little leverage in the Strait of Hormuz
Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer in security studies at Kings College London, said Sunday that Trump’s plan to use the U.S. Navy to block the Strait of Hormuz is unrealistic.
“We should bear in mind that the Americans have a much lower threshold of pain than the Iranians,” Krieg said. “The Iranians, whatever happens, can sustain this for far longer than the world economy, far longer the Gulf states, far longer then the Americans.”
Krieg said Trump doesn’t have “any good options” and that he will have to concede on some issues.
“There isn’t any tool in the toolbox in terms of the military lever that he could use to get his way,” he said.
Energy expert says oil price could jump by $10 on Trump’s threatened blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Brent crude oil, the international standard, has gone from roughly $70 per barrel before the war in late February to more than $119 at times. Brent for June delivery fell 0.8% to $95.20 per barrel Friday.
Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at Energy Policy Research Foundation, estimates Trump’s threatened blockade could boost oil prices $5 to $10 when the market opens on Monday.
The blockade would take an estimated 2 million barrels of oil per day off the market, and the Iran war has already taken roughly 10 million barrels per day out of supply, Lynch said.
“This is a pretty big insult to a pretty big injury, I guess, is the way to put it,” he said.
But Lynch said the blockade might be short-lived as Trump will be pressured to walk it back.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see him to give it up by midweek, especially if oil prices keep going up,” he said.
