Merz’s authority was damaged by his party’s stinging defeat Sept. 6 at the hands of the anti-migration, Russia-friendly Alternative for Germany in Saxony-Anhalt, a small eastern state. Alternative for Germany, or AfD, finished just short of a majority there and has its best chance yet of forming the country’s first far-right regional government since World War II.
Merz, 70, became Germany's leader 16 months ago with promises to turn around an economy that has barely grown in years, but has failed to lift a sullen national mood and has himself become deeply unpopular.
On Sunday, two more states hold elections: Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, another largely rural region in the formerly communist and less prosperous east; and the capital, Berlin.
AfD is expected to make significant gains, but has no realistic path to power in Berlin and faces a much stronger challenge from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's center-left governor than it did from Merz's party in Saxony-Anhalt.
Prospects for Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union are bleaker. It could lose the mayor’s office in Berlin. If things go very badly, it could fail for the first time to win seats in a state legislature anywhere by falling below 5% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where it was already weak.
