But current Speaker Mike Johnson's weak grip on the gavel threatens not only his own survival but President-elect Donald Trump's ambitious agenda of tax cuts and mass deportations as Republicans sweep to power in Washington.
With opposition from his own GOP colleagues, Johnson was holed up in the Capitol on the eve of the vote, working to sway the hardline holdouts. A flop by Johnson could throw Monday's congressional certification of Trump’s 2024 election victory into turmoil without a House speaker. Even backing from Trump himself, usually a sure bet for Republicans, is no guarantee Johnson will stay in power.
“I think he’s banking a lot on people liking him," said Sarah Binder, a professor of political science at George Washington University.
"But you know I think we’re still down to: What does he need to give away in order to get the speakership? And then how long can he keep it?”
What was once a ceremonial day with newly-elected lawmakers arriving to be sworn into office, often with family and friends in tow, has evolved into a high-stakes vote for the office of House speaker, among the most powerful elected positions in Washington.
While the Senate is able to convene on its own and has already elected party leaders — Sen. John Thune as the Republican majority leader and Sen. Chuck Schumer for the Democratic minority — the House must first elect its speaker, a role required by the Constitution, second in the line of succession to the president.
Congress has been here before, when it took Republicans nearly a week and 15 rounds of voting to elect Kevin McCarthy as speaker in 2023, a spectacle unseen in modern times. McCarthy was then dumped by his party, a historic first.
The stakes are higher this year as Trump prepares to return to the White House with the House and Senate in GOP control and promising to deliver big on a 100-day agenda.
“He's the one that can win right now,” Trump said about Johnson at a New Year's Eve party that drew other GOP leaders to his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.
Trump endorsed Johnson but also said “others are very good, too,” a nod to “Make America Great Again” allies in the president-elect's orbit.
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