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No surprise, say pundits: Swing states swinging toward Trump

No surprise, say pundits: Swing states swinging toward Trump


No surprise, say pundits: Swing states swinging toward Trump

Two longtime conservative political watchers say a recent poll in the all-important swing states is on point – and it's not good news for Joe Biden.

President Joe Biden has urged voters to help him "finish the job," but a new Wall Street Journal poll finds Donald Trump leading Biden in six of seven swing states.

"The poll of the election's main battlegrounds shows Trump holding leads of between 2 and 8 percentage points in six states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina – on a test ballot that includes third-party and independent candidates," wrote WSJ's Aaron Zitner. "Trump holds similar leads when voters are asked to choose only between him and Biden."

Those six states represent a total of 83 electoral votes.

Author and Washington Times columnist Robert Knight isn't surprised by the poll's findings.

Robert Knight Knight

"When you go to the grocery store [or] the gas pump, you cannot help but think 'This can't go on much longer if our country is to survive' – and I think most Americans are disgusted with what has happened over the last three years," says Knight. "Prices really have doubled. Let us face it. They say inflation is only 18% or something but everybody knows it's far greater than that for many, many things."

The WSJ poll revealed 36% of those surveyed rated the strength of the U.S. economy as "excellent" or "good"; but 63% rated it as "not so good" or "poor."

Knight also points out the open border has become a huge issue. "Biden is losing the Democratic base, [something that] hasn't happened in a long time," says the columnist. "It really is foreboding for Democrats, but a lot of Americans are worried that the Democrats seem to not care. They are doubling down."

That, says Knight, is something people see with their own two eyes. "They are not stupid," he states. "They know that Joe Biden is wrecking their savings, wrecking their investments, wrecking their family income. It is only surprising that the lead by former President Trump isn't even greater in these states."

Bauer: No Trump, no GOP victory

Gary Bauer of American Values is also among the "not surprised" group. "… I have believed all along that the only possible Republican nominee this year who could win was, in fact, Donald Trump," he tells AFN.

"The conventional wisdom has been – and it has also been conventional wisdom that some conservative Christians have embraced – that Donald Trump is damaged goods, he loses too many suburban voters, particularly suburban women, people do not like his personality, he'll never be able to win, etcetera, etcetera."

Bauer, Gary (American Values) Bauer

But Bauer argues the former president brings in what he describes as "countless working-class Americans of all races" to his banner.

"And I've not seen any evidence that any other Republican that competed against him can do the same thing," Bauer continues. "So, when people say, 'If we can only get rid of Trump, then we'd be able to win', I think it's the exact opposite.

"If for some reason Trump isn't on the ballot – [maybe due to] a health issue, they throw him in jail, whatever; I know a lot of Republicans in the Republican establishment would love to see that happen – they have no idea how terribly they will be defeated in November if Donald Trump is not at the top of the ticket."

Wisconsin is the one outlier in the WSJ poll. Biden leads by three points on a multiple-candidate ballot, while Trump and Biden are tied in a head-to-head contest in the Badger State.

The poll surveyed 600 registered voters in each of the seven swing states. Eighty-three percent of those surveyed said they will "definitely" vote in the November 2024 election; another 9% said they "probably" will vote.

Word of advice: Take on the culture war

Meanwhile, Knight offers some advice to the former president on how to build on his lead of Biden in the swing states. He suggests Trump ask Americans how they're doing financially under Biden's policies, while asking how they like being a border state anywhere in the country.

"If I were President Trump, I'd go to the border more than once for a photo op and to talk to the officials dealing with this incredible surge in illegals that has gone on under Joe Biden," says Knight. "I would not be shy to engage in the culture war."

According to Knight, most Americans don't like the transgender agenda being "shoved down their throats."

"They don't like to see it ruining women's sports," he adds. "They don't want their children seduced into weird sexuality and not even being told about it. A lot of Americans are fearful that the cultural forces put into place by Joe Biden are tearing at the country's soul."

As a result, Knight says Trump has a golden opportunity just to stand for traditional values. "Hispanics will flock to him if he does that," he says. "A lot of black voters, when informed of how bizarre the Biden cultural agenda really is, will either vote Republican or sit it out."

In Knight's opinion, Republicans have been "reluctant" historically to really take on the culture war the way they should, which is one of the reasons why he says the country is in the mess it's in today.

"But I think Trump gets it," he concludes. "There are so many issues here that he could magnify one of them a week and still not run out of them before election."


4/5/2024 -- "Word of advice" section added.