Poll results have in large part guided the actions of former President Donald Trump so far. In fact, Team Trump has pointed to his enormous lead in most polls as it questions the value in putting Trump in an environment where other candidates will likely attack him to gain ground.
Consequently, he did not attend The Family Leader event ten days ago in Iowa where former Fox News host Tucker Carlson sat with the better-known GOP candidates in one-on-one 25-minute sessions. And there's talk that Trump will also skip the first Republican debate set for Aug. 23 in Milwaukee.
The most recent GOP Primary tracker at Morning Consult validates his campaign's approach, showing Trump with 55% – 35 points better than Ron DeSantis at 20%. And while political newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy has climbed, he's still at just 8%.
But the numbers at Salem Media, a conservative outlet, tell a different story. In that ongoing (three-week) straw poll, Trump leads with 51.92% followed by DeSantis at 38.05%. Vivek Ramaswamy is again in third place but with just 3.63%.
For now, a year and a half before votes are cast, the keys to reading the tea leaves are the independent voters and the undecided.
"A straw poll is different because people are self-selecting into the poll. They're saying, 'I want to be part of this poll.' You're not just randomly calling people, so that changes things, and the Salem audience is going to be predominantly GOP," Bill Mitchell, CEO of YourVoice Studios and a DeSantis supporter, said on American Family Radio Monday.
While the straw poll hits a targeted audience, DeSantis also has a chance to close the gap – according to Mitchell – if he sways independent voters. His numbers were very strong in a June poll released by Milwaukee's Marquette University, a survey that went after Republicans but also "independents who lean Republican."
"It used to be about a third, a third, a third; Democrats, Republicans and independents. Well, it's really changed because Biden chased a lot of Democrats to the middle, and a lot of Republicans went to the middle too when they became disappointed with losing these elections. So now you get about 50% independents, 25% GOP and 25% Democrat. So you've got to have that independent vote in there," Mitchell told show host Jenna Ellis.
The indictments against Trump – one for alleged hush money payments to cover up a potential sex scandal and another for possession of classified documents – are largely viewed as harassment by a base that galvanized and bumped his numbers each time in the polls that are more random in nature, Mitchell explained.
DeSantis shines in Marquette poll
In a poll that included the entire GOP field, Marquette respondents went for Trump at 31% and DeSantis at 30% with Mike Pence a distant third at 6%. When the question limited choices to Trump or DeSantis, the Florida governor got 57% of the vote with Trump getting 41%.
"DeSantis did exceptionally well in that poll. This is [another] poll that's not going to be random," Mitchell noted.
The independent voter is a different animal than the all-in politicos that populate Twitter and other social media platforms.
"The independent voters tend to be less of ideologues. They're more about 'I just want stuff to work. I just want my kids to be safe. I don't want there to be crime. I want there to be a good economy.' They're not on Twitter every day, they're not listening to talk radio every day. That group really favors DeSantis because DeSantis is the just-make-stuff-work candidate, right?" Mitchell argued.
Assuming that most of Salem's conservative listeners are not independent voters, Mitchell said DeSantis' showing of almost 40% was a very good day.
"That's Trump's core, core, core base, and then he's capturing 60-70% of that Independent out there … realistically, DeSantis right now could be leading this race," he said.
DeSantis has to swing the bubble crowd
Mitchell said because Trump, a former president now in his third race, is a known commodity, it's a third type of poll – one that includes not just voters but precinct managers – that really sheds more light on what voters are thinking about the GOP field.
"These are people who have a lot of influence. It's 25-28% who are ride or die Trump, 'We're definitely Trump.' About 48-50% are on the bubble, and about 25% are 'Never Trump.' When you have a fully known candidate, they know his brand. Everybody knows where Trump is.
"That's 50% who voted for him in 2020 and 2016. Why are they on the bubble now? It's because they really don't want him for whatever reason, and they're looking for an off ramp, but they want to make sure they don't get into a leaky lifeboat," Mitchell said.
DeSantis, he continued, is reading the room and understands his opportunity. With that in mind, the Florida governor isn't going hard after Trump who long ago launched the strategy of going hard after DeSantis.
"DeSantis doesn't need to multiply the fishes, heal the sick and walk on water to win this thing. He just needs to be the reasonable MAGA alternative to Trump. That's what DeSantis is doing. That's the meme that he's creating out there," Mitchell said.
And voters "on the bubble" have already decided they don't want Trump, according to Mitchell. "I think DeSantis is building up this message, this meme, so that he peaks at just the right time," he concluded.
The Salem straw poll continues through March 2024. Individuals can join the poll anytime, but can only vote once per month.
